Experts predict battleground seats that will decide 2025 federal election

With an election now just weeks away, these are the electorates that could decide the fate of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

A top pollster says a handful of key seats in NSW and Victoria will decide the fate of the 2025 federal election, with voters to hit the polls in a matter of weeks.

Australians are expected to be asked to cast their ballots on May 3, with polls tipping a likely minority government, meaning neither major party is able to win at least 76 seats of the total 150 in the House of Representatives.

Currently, Labor can only lose two of its current 78 seats if it wants to maintain a majority government, while the Coalition have an uphill battle to win 21 extra seats in order to govern outright, without seeking supply from the crossbench.

Here are the key electorates that could decide the federal election:

NSW and Victoria

Redbridge Group polling director Kos Samaras says the election would be won in NSW and Victoria, both states where there are multiple seats he says are “too close to call from our analysis”.

In NSW, he names the electorates of Robertson, Gilmore, Patterson and Hunter, and the Sydney seats of Macarthur, Bennelong and Reid.

Liberal hopefuls will also be trying to win back the six seats of Wentworth, Warringah and Mackellar in NSW, Goldstein and Kooyong in Victoria, and Curtin in Western Australia.

In Victoria, Mr Samaras names Corangamite, Dunkley, Aston, McEwen, Hawke, Holt and Isaacs.

“They’re all in play,” he said.

Notably, the Liberals will also attempt to win back the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, which the party lost to Labor’s Carina Garland in 2022.

The Coalition also faces another fight in the blue ribbon seat of Bradfield following the departure of longtime frontbencher Paul Fletcher.

Salesforce executive Gisele Kapterian will fight to maintain the blue-ribbon seat against Climate 200 backed candidate Nicolette Boele, who in 2022 managed a 12.3 per cent swing against Mr Fletcher.

The Liberals will be forced to fight for its blue ribbon seat of Bradfield following the retirement of Paul Fletcher, with a Teal independent making a strong play for the seat. Picture: NewsWire/ Martin Ollman

The threat of the Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matter in NSW and Victoria could also spell trouble, despite their campaigns remaining quiet so far.

While neither groups will run candidates themselves – instead focusing on voter education – two Muslim candidates have already emerged in two Sydney seats held by high-profile ministers in protest of Labor’s stance on Gaza.

Egypt-born pharmacist Ahmed Ouf will stand for the seat of Blaxland, currently held by Education Minister Jason Clare, and GP Ziad Basyouny will run in Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s southwestern Sydney seat of Watson.

Mr Samaras, whose company Redbridge was contracted to do polling by Climate 200 for the 2022 federal campaign, noted the successful campaigns run by Teal independents “started slow and picked up momentum the closer you get to D Day”.

This election, Climate 200 will be supporting nine incumbent independents, and contributing to the campaigns of a further 26.

“The question is whether those independent campaigns are active on the ground, and if they are I think we should keep watching them because we may get a surprise,” he said.

He noted the polling behind Wentworth MP and Teal independent Allegra Spender, who increased her polling from the “mid-teens” to a figure in the 20s at the start of the 2022 campaign, before claiming 35.8 per cent of the first preference vote and unseating Liberal incumbent Dave Sharma.

Pollster Kos Samaras noted Allegra Spender was able to increase her polling from the mid-teens to the mid-30s during the 2022 election campaign, citing the importance of on-the-ground campaigning for independent candidates. Picture: NewsWire/ Martin Ollman

Queensland

While the marginal seats of Queensland were once where the election was won and lost, Labor currently holds only five of the state’s 29 seats, with the Coalition claiming 21 and the Greens three.

“If Labor was to win (a majority) government they would probably need to recover in Queensland, but that doesn’t look like it’s happening now,” founder of election analysis blog The Tally Room, Ben Raue, said.

The retirement of Liberal MP Warren Entsch from Leichhardt (held on a 3.4 per cent margin) based in Cairns in Far North Queensland could allow Labor candidate and former pro-basketballer Matt Smith to wrestle the seat from the LNP’s pick and former Cairns councillor Jeremy Neal.

The Greens are also hoping to win two more Brisbane seats from Labor on a policy platform targeting renters – Lilley currently held by Aged Care and Sport Minister Anika Wells and the southern Brisbane seat of Moreton, being vacated by retiring MP Graham Perrett.

Western Australia and South Australia

WA was the dark horse that delivered Labor a majority government in 2022, largely thanks to the popularity of former Covid-era premier Mark McGowan.

Mr Samaras said he expected Labor to largely hold onto nine of the 15 seats it had from the 2022 election.

But there will be a new seat this election, following the addition of the new WA seat of

Bullwinkel (notionally Labor).

While initial analysis suggested it could go to Labor, Mr Samaras believed it would fall to the Coalition, while Mr Raue noted the area was a “safe-ish Liberal seat before the last election”.

Mr Samaras also tipped little change in the 10 electorates within South Australia, with Labor holding six, the Coalition three and one held by Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.

“There’s a lot of Liberal brand damage in Western Australian and that’s still present,” Mr Samaras said.

“I think on a normal day, the Coalition will gain one seat there but I don’t think anything is going to happen in South Australia.”

Top pollster Kos Samaras believed Labor would largely maintain its stronghold in Western Australia. Picture: NewsWire/ Aaron Francis

Tasmania

To make up for a potential loss in WA, Labor is looking to make up ground in Tasmania, where it hopes to win the seat of Braddon following the exit of Liberal MP Gavin Pearce.

Tasmanian senator Anne Urquhart will contest the seat, midway through her eight-year senate term, and despite the Liberals holding an 8 per cent margin.

Former Tasmanian state Labor leader Rebecca White – who failed three times to win a state election – is making a tilt at federal politics in the of Lyons, after MP Brian Mitchell stood aside for her.

The swing seat of Basswill also be closely watched.

Currently held by rebel Liberal MP Bridget Archer, Mr Albanese recently declared the electorate a “must win seat,” for Labor’s candidate, teacher Jess Teesdale.

However Mr Samaras noted there was little improvement in Labor’s primary vote in central and northern Tasmania, and believes the Coalition will hold onto both the key electorates.

Northern Territory and the ACT

Labor currently holds both lower house seats in the Northern Territory, it will need to ensure it holds onto Lingiari, which is held by former deputy chief minister Marion Scrymgour on a 0.9 per cent margin.

However, it holds the greater Darwin electorate of Solomon on a safer margin of 9.4 per cent.

Labor also has a clean sweep of all three seats in the ACT, which include Bean, Canberra and Fenner.

Originally published as Experts predict battleground seats that will decide 2025 federal election