The key seats that could decide the 2025 federal election

With the election just one sleep away, these are the electorates that could hand Anthony Albanese another three years of majority government.

With just two sleeps to go until Australians hit the polls, bookies have pegged a Labor majority as the most likely outcome from the federal vote.

In a more traditional measurement, YouGov — which correctly called the 2023 Spanish election, 2024 UK election and the 2025 German election — predicts Labor could win up to 85 seats.

At the very least, it will retain its majority with 76 seats, according to YouGov’s latest modelling.

It is a dramatic turnaround in Labor’s fortunes when compared to the start of the campaign nearly six weeks ago, and a damning call for the Coalition, which YouGov has projected to lose as many as 11 seats.

Here are the key electorates that could give Anthony Albanese another term of majority government.

NSW and Victoria

According to YouGov, Labor’s path to a majority involves taking the Liberal-held division of Banks.

The insights firm’s latest data put the Albanese government at 50.6 per cent to the opposition’s 49.4 per cent on a two-party preferred basis and predicted a 3.8 per cent swing to Labor.

A red win in Banks would unseat senior Liberal MP David Coleman, dealing a heavy blow to Peter Dutton’s shadow cabinet.

YouGov gives a tighter read for Liberal-held Menzies in Victoria, projecting a 1 per cent swing toward Labor, which is just ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis at 50.3 per cent.

YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said the turnaround for Labor since February, especially in NSW, was “extraordinary”.

“We had the Coalition winning basically a big circle of Sydney, plus the pickup of Bennelong,” he told NewsWire.

“Now they’re not going to pick up any. They’re defending.”

In an especially worrying call for the opposition, the NSW seats ofBradfield, Calare and Cowper and the Victorian seat of Wannon are set to go independent.

The Liberals are fighting for the blue ribbon seat of Bradfield after Paul Fletcher’s retirement. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Bradfield was always going to be a hard fight for the Liberals with the departure of longtime frontbencher Paul Fletcher.

But losing Wannon would boot Dan Tehan, another senior Liberal, out of the Lower House, too.

Queensland

While the marginal seats of Queensland were once where elections were won and lost, Labor currently holds only five of the state’s 29 seats, with the Coalition claiming 21 and the Greens three.

But according to YouGov’s modelling, Labor is set to flip Bonner from the Liberals as well as the seat of Brisbane from the Greens.

YouGov’s modelling put Labor ahead of the Liberals at 51.2 per cent on a two-party preferred basis and projected a 4.6 per cent swing.

In Brisbane, which the Greens won from Liberal hands in 2022, Labor is well ahead on the primary vote with 32.3 per cent to the Coalition’s 24.7 per cent and the Greens’ 23.3 per cent.

Though, YouGov predicts the Coalition will win the battle for Leichardt in Far North Queensland.

Some analysts had thought the retirement of Warren Entsch could have loosened the Coalition’s grip on the seat and allowed Labor candidate and former pro-basketballer Matt Smith to wrestle the seat from the LNP’s pick Jeremy Neal.

But despite a 0.7 per cent swing toward Labor, YouGov predicts a comfortable win for the Coalition.

Western Australia and South Australia

WA was the dark horse that delivered Labor a majority government in 2022, largely thanks to the popularity of former Covid-era premier Mark McGowan.

Redbridge Group director Kos Samaras says he expects Labor to largely hold onto nine of the 15 seats it had from the 2022 election.

But there will be a new seat this election, following the addition of the new WA seat of

Bullwinkel.

Mr Samaras has tipped it will go to the Coalition, while election analyst Ben Raue has pointed out the area was a “safe-ish Liberal seat before the last election”.

But YouGov is projecting it will be a shoo-in for Labor.

Top pollster Kos Samaras believed Labor would largely maintain its stronghold in Western Australia. Picture: NewsWire/ Aaron Francis

Mr Samaras also tipped little change in South Australia’s 10 electorates, with Labor holding six, the Coalition three and one held by Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.

“There’s a lot of Liberal brand damage in Western Australian and that’s still present,” Mr Samaras said.

“I think on a normal day, the Coalition will gain one seat there but I don’t think anything is going to happen in South Australia.”

Though, YouGov has called Sturt in Adelaide’s east for Labor.

Tasmania

The Albanese government has weathered criticism from the fisheries for not doing more to support Tasmania’s salmon industry, with the state’s Liberal premier regularly hounding federal Labor on the matter.

It has also been hit with backlash from conservationists for not doing enough to protect the Apple Isle’s waterways and its endangered Maugean skate.

Nonetheless, Labor has campaigned hard to pick up Braddon following the exit of Liberal MP Gavin Pearce.

Tasmanian senator Anne Urquhart will contest the seat, midway through her eight-year senate term.

YouGov projects Braddon will turn red but that the Coalition’s grip will tighten on the other battleground seat of Bass, with a 0.7 per cent swing blue.

Currently held by rebel Liberal MP Bridget Archer, Mr Albanese has declared the electorate a “must win seat,” for Labor’s candidate, teacher Jess Teesdale.

However, Mr Samaras also says there has been little improvement in Labor’s primary vote in central and northern Tasmania, and believes the Coalition will hold onto both Bass and Lyons.

Labor is making a play for Lyons with former Tasmanian state Labor leader Rebecca White – who failed three times to win a state election – after MP Brian Mitchell stood aside for her.

YouGov predicts Ms White will have better luck winning the federal seat than she did fighting for the Tasmanian premiership.

Northern Territory and the ACT

Labor currently holds both lower house seats in the Northern Territory with comfortable margins, with YouGov indicating there have been swings away from the Coalition in both Lingiari and Solomon.

Labor also has a clean sweep of all three seats in the ACT, which include Bean, Canberra and Fenner.