Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning! Here’s everything you need to know before the ASX flings open its doors and begins trading today.

Good morning! Here’s everything you need to know before the ASX flings open its doors and begins trading today. Pic: Getty Images.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, May 19, 2025. Here's what you should know before the ASX opens today…

Wall Street dances, but tariffs still loom

The ASX is set to open the week on a high note, with the ASX200 futures trading higher by 0.2% at 7AM, AEST.

On Friday, Wall Street strutted into the weekend, with the S&P 500 closing its fifth straight day in the green, erasing its 2025 losses.

The Nasdaq also clocked a 7% weekly gain thanks to a rocket-fuelled surge in tech stocks.

AI darling Nvidia led the charge, up 15% last week, with big-money deals flowing in from Saudi and UAE.

Tesla also kept climbing for a fourth straight week as Elon rejigged the board, bringing in Chipotle’s long time exec Jack Hartung to its board.

But investors are still eyeing Trump’s tariff thorns.

Experts believe the much smaller 30% tariffs on Chinese good will still kneecap 70% of Chinese exports to the US, which means this trade tussle is far from over.

For ASX punters,  keep a sharp eye on exporters who’ll be watching China’s next move like hawks.

Moody’s drops the hammer on Uncle Sam

Just as markets were steadying the ship, Moody’s quietly pulled the rug, stripping US sovereign credit of its last triple-A credit rating.

The downgrade from AAA to Aa1 wasn’t exactly a bolt from the blue. Moody’s had been grumbling about this for months, but it still sent a jolt through bond markets.

Moody's said America’s debt is now so bloated it’s outgrown its belt, and interest payments are chewing up more of the budget than ever.

With deficits running at nearly US$2 trillion a year, and no serious plan to rein them in, investors are now pricing in the risk.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries popped higher by 5 basis points to 4.49% (bond prices lower) after the news, suggesting that investors expect a higher risk premium for US bonds.

The US downgrade could mean one thing for Aussie investors: more volatility ahead in bond markets.

Gold slips as peace talk glimmers

Gold took a bit of a stumble last week. Prices dropped over 4% as traders caught wind of something rare: the whiff of peace.

Russia and Ukraine kicked off direct talks. US-China tariffs cooled. And with the world looking (slightly) less apocalyptic, the urgency to hoard shiny metal faded, at least for now.

But zoom out, and gold’s still up 22% for the year, riding on central bank hoarding and inflows into ETFs. So this dip may just be a breather.

For local gold stocks, expect a bit of a pullback on Monday.

RBA set to cut this week

Closer to home, all eyes are on Martin Place as the RBA gears up to cut rates on Tuesday.

A Reuters poll says it’s almost a sure thing: a 25 basis-point trim down to 3.85%, with two more cuts likely before Santa shows up.

Some banks, like NAB, are calling for a 50bps cut, but the consensus is for a more measured move.

Economists are now tipping the cash rate could fall to 3.35% or lower by year’s end, that’s 100bps of total easing.

For the ASX, that’s a green light for rate-sensitive sectors like property, utilities, and consumer plays.

COMMODITY/FOREX/CRYPTO MARKET PRICES

Commodity	Price (US)	Move
Gold:	$3,203.79	-1.03%
Silver:	$32.27	-1.09%
Iron ore:	$100.08	-0.34%
Nickel:	$15,605.00	-1.27%
Copper:	$9,102.20	-2.26%
Zinc:	$2,690.85	-1.39%
Lithium carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot:	CNY 75,000	-1.96%
Oil (WTI):	$62.49	1.41%
Oil (Brent):	$65.41	1.36%
AUD/USD:	$0.6405	-0.02%
Bitcoin:	$104,590.00	+1.61%

What got you talking

Also in the news...

With the price of gallium kicking up about 34% since the beginning of last year, and exports restricted out of China, western mining companies are stepping into the gap.

Trump’s new policy aimed at lowering US drug prices has calmed fears of a new pharmaceutical tariff, boosting ASX health stocks 2.1% over the last week. Check out which biotechs are benefiting with Scott Power’s ‘Powerplay’ stock pick.

Trading Halts

Bryah Resources (ASX:BYH) - announcement regarding an acquisition
Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX:CHM) - cap raise
Dotz Nano (ASX:DTZ) - cap raise
Midas Minerals (ASX:MM1) - cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While HyTerra is a Stockhead advertiser, they did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

Originally published as Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens