Researchers reveal AI could show how Covid-19 might evolve

Researchers have developed a technique of exploring possible ways the Covid-19 virus could evolve in the future.

Artificial intelligence could be used to explore how the Covid-19 virus might evolve, according to a team of international researchers.

William Kelton, from the University of Waikato in New Zealand, has been involved in the ETH Zurich research, aimed at preparing for future coronavirus variants using AI.

Dr Kelton’s concept was to take proteins from the coronavirus surface and create multiple artificial mutations, screening them to discover which ones allowed binding to cells.

Sai Reddy and his team at ETH then expanded on the concept by adding antibodies to mimic the selection pressures a virus might undergo in a human.

Information was then used to train machine-learning models to predict how well a new variant might bind to cells and escape antibody binding from tens of billions of possibilities.

Artificial intelligence could be used to explore how the Covid-19 virus might evolve. Picture: Tony McDonough / NCA NewsWire

Dr Kelton said the model was very accurate at predicting potential pathways by which new variants might evolve.

He said it might also provide a path to fighting future variants.

“If we can get ahead of Covid, we can make drugs and antibodies before these variants emerge and design solutions to combat them,” he said.

“We can also test to see how existing drugs work against panels of potential variants.”

It comes as Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton warned this week Australia was in a Covid-19 “trough”.

“It’s clear we’re in the ‘trough’ part of Covid-19 activity now, with fewer cases and hospitalisations than we’ve seen for months,” he tweeted.

Professor Brett Sutton says Australia is experiencing a Covid-19 trough. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

“That’s very welcome, of course. It may also be that the coming wave is lower and slower than the waves we’ve seen in 2022, for different reasons.

“Most previous waves have been driven predominantly by new variants of concern.

“The coming ‘wave’ – if that’s the term – may be driven more by the waning hybrid immunity (recent infection plus vaccination) than by any particular variant. Make no mistake, the variants will come.”

Professor Sutton said there could be a peak closer to the end of the year.

“We never know what’s around the corner, however, and BA2.75.2 is causing concern in immunological circles, for good reason – immune evasion,” he wrote.

🧵It's clear were in the 'trough' part of COVID-19 activity now, with fewer cases and hospitalisations than we've seen for months. That's very welcome, of course. It may also be that the coming wave is lower and slower than the waves we've seen in 2022, for different reasons. 1/5

— Chief Health Officer, Victoria (@VictorianCHO) September 18, 2022

“So peaks and troughs will continue and we therefore have to focus on the key protections that can mitigate their impact.

“There’s a legitimate debate about what potential impact protections have and what’s reasonable to take up or prioritise.

“What shouldn’t be in dispute is that 50 Covid deaths in Australia a day is huge as a cause, and that long Covid is emerging as a very significant, ongoing burden of illness for thousands and thousands of people.”

Originally published as Researchers reveal AI could show how Covid-19 might evolve