Map following NSW election paints grim picture of Liberals future

As the Liberals begin a period of soul searching following a bruising election loss, one moderate has some blunt advice for the party.

An election night bloodshed has a moderate Liberal warning the party against lurching further into the margins as it picks itself up from a bruising defeat.

Chris Minns turned the state red in a thumping election victory that ended the Coalition’s 12 year reign in NSW.

The only state not lead by a Labor majority is Tasmania, led by Jeremy Rockliff, with the next election not due until 2025.

The NSW election win comes a few months after the release of the Liberals’ internal review of last year’s federal election, which found former prime minister Scott Morrison and the party were considered “out of touch” by voters across the country.

Authored by former federal director Brian Loughnane and senator Jane Hume, the report found a lack of policy agenda and deteriorating support among women also contributed to the Liberal Party’s worst result since 1946.

The NSW election result means Tasmania is the outlier with a Liberal government.

Peter Dutton has also been keen to reshape his image after being elected unopposed as Liberal leader when Mr Morrison – who made no secret of his Pentecostal Christian faith while he was in office – stepped down after the bruising election loss.

Since then the Opposition Leader been keen to remake himself in the eyes of those Australians who think of him as the tough ex-cop turned immigration and defence minister who pursued hard line policies in sensitive areas such as asylum seeker arrivals.

In his first press conference after becoming the party’s leader, Mr Dutton promised to pursue an agenda that appealed to a broad range of people in the style of traditional Liberal politics.

“Under my leadership, the Liberal Party is not … the ‘Conservative Party’, not the ‘Moderate Party’. We are Liberals – we are a broad church,” he said at the time.

Mr Dutton has sought to soften his image since becoming leader. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

“We will have policies that appeal to Australians across the board. Those Australians that believe, as I do, that we need to keep our country safe and keep the economy strong so that we can help families, help small businesses and help them grow.”

But whether Mr Dutton has successfully softened his conservative “hard man” image enough to return the Coalition to power at the next federal election remains to be seen.

Following the NSW election, moderate senator Andrew Bragg warned his party against using the result to justify lurching further to the extreme end of politics.

“One of the most important lessons here is that we have to be a party that doesn’t go to the margins and that doesn’t seek to inject division into the mainstream,” he told ABC radio.

“But the Liberal Party has held on to the bulk of its metro seats, on the north shore, in the eastern suburbs, parts of the inner west.”

“These are the areas that were wiped out in the last federal election and I think that’s an important distinction.”

Mr Perrottet was in good spirits as he left his home on Sunday morning. Picture: NCA Newswire/ Monique Harmer

Mr Dutton was notably absent from the Liberals campaign trial. In juxtaposition, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese featured heavily.

The Australian National University’s Ian McAllister, who researches Australian political science, said the Liberal Party at the next federal election would face the issue of “underlying gravity”.

“There’s a gradual movement of women away from the Liberal Party. And the longer term shift of young people away from the Coalition, which is huge by electoral standards,” Professor McAllister said.

“I’d be amazed if this wasn’t being replicated at a state level.”

Anthony Albanese celebrated with Chris Minns following his election victory. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Swift

Saturday’s Labor win isn’t the only upcoming poll the federal Liberals – and the Albanese Labor government – will be watching closely.

The following weekend, on April 1, voters in the Melbourne seat of Aston will vote in a by-election triggered by the retirement of sitting MP and former Liberal cabinet minister Alan Tudge.

That is where Mr Dutton says his focus remains. And there’s good reason for him to prove he can win on a federal level, even if just for the symbolism at this stage of the electoral cycle.

In 2001, then prime minister John Howard, under electoral stress because of the new GST, unexpectedly won the Aston by-election. And later the November federal election.

Mr Dutton would have hoped for a NSW Coalition win. But for him, a win in Aston matters more.

Originally published as Map following NSW election paints grim picture of Liberals future