Volodymyr’s Zelensky victory plan gets a cold shoulder from allies

US backing is crucial to secure support from other allies for what he believes is necessary to strengthen position on the battlefield.

French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha lay flowers at the Memory Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine outside Saint Michael's Cathedral, in Kyiv. Picture: AFP

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plan to end Ukraine’s nearly three-year war with Russia has received mixed reactions from Western allies so far.

The “victory plan” Mr Zelensky outlined at home and abroad includes a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia – two steps Kyiv’s allies have been reluctant to support before.

US backing is crucial if Mr Zelensky is to get support from other allies for proposals he believes are necessary to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and ahead of any peace negotiations. Analysts say the Biden administration is unlikely to make a decision before the US presidential election on November 5, as it may not appeal to voters.

“They seem to be just doing very little now and waiting for the election,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. “So much of the strategy will live or die in Washington.”

Analysts said the plan was a step in the right direction for Ukraine’s military efforts.

They also described it as ambitious, given allies’ fears of escalation with nuclear-armed Russia. Ukraine has previously secured Western support for requests once deemed unrealistic, such as Patriot air defence systems and F-16 jets.

After returning from making his case to the European Council, Mr Zelensky said he expected the White House to provide feedback. “They will be here soon with some form of response,” he said.

Mr Zelensky laid out the five-point plan as Ukraine’s troops struggle to hold back Russia’s slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine. The plan includes three “secret annexes” that were presented only to some leaders. It also addresses allies’ concerns about Kyiv’s strategy after the failed summer 2023 counter-offensive.

He described the main goal as “to strengthen us and force Russia to come to the negotiating table with all partners”.

The plan won’t immediately alter the battlefield situation but it will help Ukraine wear down Russia and give more means to keep going in the attrition war.

“I think people were potentially expecting some sort of more operational plan on winning the war,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads Sibylline, a strategic advisory firm. “That’s a naive opinion to have expected a plan to have provided operational details that would obviously be of use to the enemy.”

US reaction was muted and non-committal, though it did issue a new $US425m ($633m) package of security assistance for Ukraine the day that Mr Zelensky presented the plan to MPs.

“It’s not my position to publicly evaluate his plan,” US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said. “We have been supporting him by providing security assistance in a major way for 2½ years. We are going to continue to do that.”

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated in Kyiv on Saturday that he would work with Ukrainian officials to rally other nations to get behind the proposal. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stood by his refusal to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, having the warmest relations of any EU leader with Russian President Vladimir Putin, called Mr Zelensky’s plan “more than frightening” in a Facebook post.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov mocked the plan as “ephemeral,” and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called it “a set of incoherent slogans”.

Without an invitation to join NATO, Ukraine won’t have an “assurance that its geopolitical future will not be a bargaining chip with Russia,” said Ukrainian analyst Hlib Voloskyi.

Ukrainian officials say there are no other guarantees for Ukraine besides NATO to protect against Russia’s aggression after the war. Mr Zelensky made ambiguous comments suggesting that nuclear weapons were the only other security alternative.

Some thought he was talking of self-made nuclear weapons, sparking strong reaction among Ukrainians, many of whom were pessimistic about the prospects for an invitation to NATO.

He later clarified he was highlighting the dire situation for Ukraine by referencing the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from major nuclear powers, including the UK, the US and Russia.

AP