Vladimir Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon, as he’s threatened, rather than endure total defeat in Ukraine, especially if he thinks defeat means the end of his rule, and possibly threatens his own physical security.
One 2014 Putin interaction with then prime minister Tony Abbott demonstrates his paranoid personality and deluded ideology. At the APEC leaders’ meeting in Beijing, Abbott told Putin they need to talk about the downing of Malaysia Airlines MH17. They went outside during morning tea. Abbott told Putin he didn’t believe the Russian had personally authorised the missile shooting but the missile and its launcher had come into Ukraine from Russia for use by pro-Russian separatists.
This could only happen with the Russian government’s broad agreement, which means Putin’s agreement. So Abbott told Putin he should apologise to the grieving families and pay them reparations.
Putin reacted with hostility. He raved about Ukrainians being nazis and that they had no right to exist as a nation because they were really part of Russia. The conversation was intense but civil and occurred through an interpreter, even though Putin speaks English.
As they walked back to the meeting, Putin, highly agitated, grabbed Abbott by his suit lapels, dragged him in close and said, furiously, in English: “You are not a native Australian. I am a native Russian!”
This is Putin’s “blood and soil” doctrine of Russian nationhood. Putin’s ultra-nationalist Russian ideology gives him an excuse for territorial aggression, but he also believes it. This makes it even more likely that he can’t bear explicit defeat.
Putin, like many dictators, is alert to how he looks. He’s just annexed 15 per cent of Ukraine’s territory and already Ukraine’s military has taken back a significant chunk of this territory.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine proclaims Moscow can use nuclear weapons to repel conventional military attacks on its territory. The annexation theoretically, absurdly, means Ukraine is now attacking Russian territory.
Putin’s nuclear threats so far have constrained NATO support for Ukraine. But recently the US and allies have given more and better weapons to Kyiv.
There must now be a chance the Russian military simply breaks in the field. The poorly trained Russian troops have no motivation, no plausible purpose for being in Ukraine and limited chances of clear success.
An army that is competent, and apparently brave enough to keep fighting one week, can, the next week, suddenly lose its nerve. It was to prevent this that Putin called up 300,000 reservists, to convince his soldiers reinforcements are on their way.
Putin could see tactical nuclear weapons as one of the only ways he can change the dynamics on the battlefield.
Russia has 1500 strategic nuclear warheads deployed, 3000 more in reserve, and has kept 2000 tactical nuclear weapons.
Using a strategic weapon is unthinkable, even for the Russians. Using a tactical weapon should be too. Some tactical nuclear weapons are still horrifically large, similar to the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.
But others are extremely small, comparable to the largest conventional weapons. It’s not clear they would transform the battlefield. Ukraine’s forces are dispersed. But they could have a massive psycho-military effect.
They might cause Putin’s few important friends, especially China and India, to abandon him. They could also cause nervous West Europeans to push for a “dirty deal”, whereby Putin keeps a chunk of captured Ukrainian territory.
The US has far fewer tactical nukes, but any NATO response would surely be conventional.
It’s still likely nuclear weapons won’t be used, but it’s now more possible than ever in this grisly and dangerous conflict.
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