Five years ago at the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping was ranked with Mao Tse-tung and Deng Xiaoping in the party’s constitution and given permission to stand for a record third term as president.
Unchallenged, Xi was celebrated as a hero. Everyone expected that in five years, as the 20th Congress was approaching, there would again be celebrations to mark Xi’s achievements.
Instead, although there is less that two weeks before the Congress opens, there is an eerie silence.
It is highly likely that Xi will be given a third term because he appears to have the numbers. But it has been a bad year for China.
It is clear to all that Xi, in not making it very clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that China would oppose a Ukraine invasion, made a serious mistake.
Australian business people in China are reporting unprecedented agitation in the country and social media speculation that Xi’s presidency might be challenged is surprisingly rife.
In the last 12 months, nothing has gone right for the Chinese president, and while he is still very likely to win a third term, he no longer has hero status.
And this week, Xi would have been shaking his head in disbelief when Putin first claimed to annex about 15 per cent of Ukraine and then in the key eastern city of Lyman, his soldiers retreated giving control of a city back to Ukraine.
Last February, just prior to the Winter Olympics, Xi had the chance to demand Russia not invade Ukraine.
While Xi did not openly support a Russian invasion, he further cemented the Russia-China alliance so he was giving Putin unofficial approval.
Putin delayed the invasion until after the Olympics.
At the 19th Congress, Xi’s hero status came from his grand vision to link the Pacific to the Atlantic via fast rail as the lynchpin of a global transport network.
In the last 2000 years, only one country has established a global transport network – the British Empire.
Under Xi, China would become the second country to achieve such a feat and, the congress confidently expected China would follow the British in achieving global commercial dominance and the decline of the western system of government would accelerate.
A fast train line has been completed between China’s Pacific coast and its ancient capital Xian.
An efficient fast train journey from Xian to Brussels or other European ports must pass through Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine.
Xi therefore has always known that he needed the support of both Russia and Ukraine to achieve the dream.
In February, Putin almost certainly assured Xi that victory would come quickly so agreement on the rail link would follow.
Instead Putin, now facing the prospect of defeat, is threatening nuclear war and the Russian atrocities mean that there is no way in the next five years Europe will agree to any Pacific to Atlantic fast train that runs through Russia.
China can see itself being forced to rescue Russia, but Putin’s legacy may cause that to hold back the Asian giant from achieving its potential.
Worse still, the Western alliance has become much more united and is reducing its links with China.
The US is seeing any Chinese Taiwan invasion as akin to Ukraine.
As always happens when events move the wrong way, there are conflicting views in China as to the next step and this causes power struggles.
In China, Xi controls the military who are almost certainly urging him to invade Taiwan.
But Premier Li Keqian is responsible for administering the Chinese civil bureaucracy and has responsibilities that extend into military mobilisation and the security forces.
And it’s not just the Russian invasion where events have moved the wrong way for China. The Chinese property industry is in crisis with local banks under pressure and many Chinese paying for apartments that have yet to be built and the builders are failing.
This creates unrest.
At the same time, the Chinese Covid vaccines have not been as effective as other vaccines and its network of lockdowns is hitting the economy.
The trade sanctions against Australia have not only failed, but helped trigger the AUKUS alliance and reinvigorated the Quad alliance between Australia, India, Japan, and the US.
The difficult relations with the US have exposed the weakness in China’s chip-making capacity and dependence on the US is curbing development of its artificial intelligence technology.
A great many rich and powerful Chinese do not want Xi returned for a third term.
They might not be successful, but the mood of celebration that spread through the 2017 meeting will be much harder to achieve when this year’s congress starts on October I6.
Given that China is our main trading partner, no one will be watching events at the congress more closely than Australia.
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