Twelve New York jurors have thrown a huge spanner in the works for Donald Trump’s presidential re-election campaign, finding the former president guilty on 34 felony charges related to hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Mr Trump had been riding high in the polls and political betting markets ahead of Thursday’s historic verdict, an advantage thrown in question following a verdict that has delivered the Joe Biden White House a critical rhetorical bludgeon with which to beat their resurgent opponent.
Expect Joe Biden to refer to his rival as a convicted felon at every opportunity.
Mr Trump had a 52 per cent chance of winning the November election compared with 36 per cent for Mr Biden according to an average of eight bookies’ odds tracked by RealClear Politics ahead of the decision.
But numerous national polls have suggested independent voters wouldn’t look favourably on a guilty verdict by twelve of their randomly selected peers, analysis set to be tested in coming days as pollsters and political analysts seek to take the national temperature.
Among diehard Trump supporters, perhaps half of Republican voters, the conviction will matter little, but Mr Trump won’t be able to win on November 5th without a majority of independent voters.
His former Republican rival Nikki Haley begrudgingly conceded she should vote for Mr Trump only last week - will she change her mind, or more importantly will her supporters, who make up around 20 per cent of the party, change their minds?
Mr Trump, who turns 78 next month, sought immediately to make the best of a bad outcome, railing against the judge, the judicial system and Democrats in his brief remarks outside the court on Thursday (Friday AEST), casting himself as the victim of a Democrat conspiracy to thwart his ability to campaign and sully his reputation.
A few minutes after the decision Mr Trump’s campaign, which had recently edged ahead of Mr Biden’s in fund raising, sent out a fundraising email entitled “I am a political prisoner!”, hoping to repeat the success he has had in recent months in turning his legal woes into political capital.
The guilty verdict on all counts surprised most experts, even the former president’s detractors, who pointed to significant holes in the evidence, which relied heavily on the testimony of Mr Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen, a convicted fraudster.
The verdict will ensure the next few weeks of US politics – sentencing is scheduled for 11th July – will revolve almost entirely around political implications of Mr Trump’s new-found status as a convicted felon.
Mr Trump will appeal the decision to a higher New York state court, potentially punting the final decision into next year.
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