Voters trust Trump’s record but like Harris

Kamala Harris boards Air Force Two at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland bound for Savannah, Georgia, for a two-day campaign bus tour. Picture: AFP

With the election less than 70 days away and the conventions over and done, it’s worth considering the state of the presidential race.

Kamala Harris’s successful convention earned her a polling bump. She’s ahead by 1.7 percentage points in the RealClear­Politics national average against Donald Trump and by 3.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s metric. Post-convention highs usually dip, but Harris’s probably won’t. Her upward movement stems not from momentary enthusiasm but previously dispirited Democrats coming home. In another race, that would have happened soon after the primaries ended.

Is the surge enough for her to win? Not if it doesn’t keep growing. Hillary Clinton carried the nationwide popular vote in 2016 by 2.1 points and lost. Joe Biden led the popular vote by 4.5 points and won narrowly. We also don’t yet have a precise picture of this year’s battlegrounds, as there aren’t enough good state polls to construct a reliable average.

Unfortunately for Trump, he isn’t stalling her momentum. The former president has criticised Harris for avoiding the press since June, but on Thursday she’ll sit down with Tim Walz for an interview with CNN. Trump has complained that she benefited from “a coup” but that’s unlikely to sway swing voters because most Americans wanted Biden to bow out. He has labelled her a “Radical Left Marxist”, but without offering any policy details, the charge falls flat. The worst are his childish ­insults – calling her “stupid”, “dumb” and a “lunatic” – and ­offensive questions, such as “Is she Indian or is she black?” This is self-destructive.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s endorsement helps Trump, but only marginally, as his 2-5 per cent of the vote will probably be split ­between the candidates. RFK Jr also remains on the ballot in key battleground states, and some voters who supported him may not turn out at all.

A major question looms: In their September 10 debate, how will the candidates address their flip-flops? Both have shifted in ways that appeal to up-for-grabs voters. Harris has changed her mind on private health insurance, fracking and the border. Trump has changed his rhetoric, if not concrete policy, on Afghanistan, abortion and immigration.

The candidates must present the other’s changes as a character indictment, while defending their own with believable, authentic explanations. Voters accept politicians who genuinely change their minds, but they need to be convinced. The debate could be decisive, as neither candidate has a clear advantage in the race. On the big issues, Trump has voters’ confidence, though his lead is dwindling. The August 13 ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found him nine points up on handling inflation and the economy and 10 points on the border. He errs each time he doesn’t focus on these issues.

Harris, on other hand, is personally more compelling. By 30 points, voters in that same poll said she had the better “physical health to serve effectively”. Voters also believed, by between seven and 15 points, she’s more “honest and trustworthy”, is mentally sharper, and better “understands the problems” of people like them.

Harris’s path to victory is obvious. She should highlight her positive personal qualities while narrowing Trump’s advantages on key issues by offering moderate policies and distancing herself from the Biden administration. Voters already believe she had little influence over Biden’s decisions. She should also emphasise the topics on which she leads Trump – healthcare and abortion – and project strong leadership on issues on which he has wavered, such as supporting Ukraine.

For his part, Trump needs to convince voters that Harris ­directly contributed to how disastrous the last four years have been. He has to be specific, and there’s ready ammunition. Take inflation. Even as Democrats such as former Treasury secretary Larry Summers warned that the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 would be inflationary, Harris cast a tie-breaking Senate vote that made its passage possible. That added $US1.9 trillion in spending. She further stoked inflation by breaking a tie to pass the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which dolled out $US364bn.

Trump must also explain what he’d do to address these challenges. Until he does, he won’t close the sale with the 10 to 12 per cent of those undecided or weakly linked to their current choice. Generally promising a return to good times isn’t enough.

Trump is in a better position now than he was at this point in 2016 and 2020. But Harris is stronger than Clinton and Biden were. The former president will have to lift his game.

The Wall Street Journal

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