Donald Trump has led the 2024 race for a long time. He has generally led in the RealClearPolitics national average since Sept. 12, 2023. As for Joe Biden, since his catastrophic debate performance on June 27, it has been clear that he was headed for a massive defeat.
But after Mr. Biden’s withdrawal Sunday, Democrats are now back in the game.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s elevation has unleashed enormous enthusiasm among Democrats. In an instant, the issue of Mr. Biden’s age and mental and physical deterioration was gone as a candidate in his 80s stepped aside for one in her 50s.
A younger face leading the Democratic ticket could bring back voters who saw Mr. Biden as out of touch and old — the young in particular. Mr. Biden’s exit means that Mr. Trump will be the oldest presidential nominee in U.S. history.
Ms. Harris will attack Mr. Trump with more vigour and precision than Mr. Biden could and prosecute the abortion issue more effectively. The Sept. 10 debate, which looks likely to happen, won’t be the walk in the park for Mr. Trump that the first debate was. Borrowing from Bill Clinton’s 1996 playbook, Ms. Harris is portraying herself as a bridge to the future and Mr. Trump as a bridge to the past.
The turnaround in Democratic enthusiasm has energised fundraising. Ms. Harris received $81 million in her first 24 hours in the race, accompanied by $150 million in pledges for her super PAC. The Trump campaign’s recent financial edge could be gone.
She’s aiming for tough operatives to lead her campaign, grabbing Biden campaign chairwoman Jennifer O’Malley Dillon and reportedly talking to Barack Obama’s 2008 manager, David Plouffe. Ms. O’Malley Dillon and Mr. Plouffe could present a formidable challenge to Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, Mr. Trump’s honchos.
Ms. Harris’s vice-presidential choice looms. Will she try to broaden her appeal with an experienced governor or member of Congress who appears ready for the top job if something happens? Such a pick would raise public estimations of her judgment, especially by comparison with Mr. Trump.
The Democrats’ Chicago convention will test her candidacy. Republicans had the advantage of holding their confab first. Mr. Trump’s favourable ratings and ballot numbers rose, perhaps out of sympathy following the attempted assassination. Can Democrats now showcase party unity and make their case as effectively as Republicans did?
Ms. Harris’s acceptance speech could provide a real contrast to Mr. Trump’s, which after a riveting start turned into a meandering mess that likely didn’t convert a single undecided voter.
That could prove a real misfire by Mr. Trump if Ms. Harris has a successful speech to close out a unified convention and then immediately hits the campaign trail hard, drawing big, enthusiastic crowds. Democrats could go into Labour Day ahead in the race, having consolidated and energised their party and made modest inroads among swing voters. A week ago, that was unthinkable.
Still, Ms. Harris has big problems. Her vice-presidential tenure is associated with one of the Biden administration’s most conspicuous failures: the chaotic southern border. Nor can she escape responsibility for Mr. Biden’s other disasters, from inflation and the Afghanistan withdrawal to out-of-control spending and antienergy policies. She’s to the left of Mr. Biden; the electorate isn’t. And after flaming out in her 2020 primary run, it’s questionable how likeable a candidate she is.
Team Trump should keep going after these policy points, while offering its own positive agenda. Blasting Ms. Harris for hiding Mr. Biden’s mental and physical decline is a waste of time. Swing voters will be more interested in the future. Republicans who demand Mr. Biden’s resignation should be careful what they wish for. If that happened, Ms. Harris would immediately have much greater stature as the new president. Attacking Ms. Harris’s replacement of Mr. Biden on the ticket as “undemocratic” and “a coup” is similarly ineffective. Referring to her as a “DEI hire” — diversity, equity and inclusion — is stupid and ugly and alienates voters.
It’s been a staggering few months, from Mr. Trump’s conviction and Mr. Biden’s historically bad debate performance to the attempted assassination of Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden’s abrupt withdrawal and Ms. Harris’s coronation.
It’ll take time to absorb all that’s been thrown at us. But when it sinks in, what’s been a close race is likely to stay that way, albeit with its underlying dynamics greatly changed. How this contest shakes out will still depend on how candidates conduct themselves in the next 100 or so days. They may be among the most interesting and consequential in American history.
Karl Rove helped organise the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
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