US Election: New crew to tone it down with Xi Jinping

A Joe Biden presidency has the potential to provide a circuit breaker in the Trump administration’s Cold War on China.

A waitress watches the US Election while at work at a cafe in Beijing, China. Picture: Getty Images

A Joe Biden presidency has the potential to provide a circuit breaker in the Trump administration’s Cold War on China.

While Australia-China ties have been seriously damaged, a change of administration in Washington could see a lessening of the influence of China hawks on rhetoric from Australia, particularly from Canberra.

A Biden administration could be expected to maintain a strong line — in trade and defence — but tone down the populist anti-China rhetoric which has spilled over into the debate in Australia.

Mr Biden is a former chair of the Senate foreign relations committee and has had many meetings with world leaders during his career including Chinese President Xi Jinping.

He would still be tough on China — particularly on human rights such as with the Uighurs and on Hong Kong — as well as perceived unfair trading practices. The ban on Chinese telecommunications companies supplying the US market and a tough line on industrial espionage are unlikely to change.

Mr Biden is also critically aware of the fact that Donald Trump’s policy is a reflection of a broad-based concern in the US that China’s economic growth and its trade policies have been detrimental to America. But Mr Biden’s more experienced, diplomatic style has the potential to tone down Washington’s strident anti-China rhetoric.

China has been careful to stay out of the US election debate, but it is widely believed Beijing would prefer a Biden presidency — as it found it difficult to deal with Mr Trump’s megaphone diplomacy and the barrage of attacks from his administration.

That said, Mr Biden — attacked as “Beijing Biden” by Mr Trump’s supporters — will be mindful of the need not to be seen showing weakness in dealing with China.

Writing in China’s Global Times, Jia Qingguo, director of the Institute for China-US People-to-People Exchanges at Peking University, said a Biden win would continue US pressure on China, but speculated that the Democrat nominee could increase dialogue with China to solve some problems, seeking co-operation on climate change and nuclear non-proliferation.

Mr Biden was part of the Obama administration which famously began the US “pivot” back to a more active role in the Pacific, challenging China’s increase role, after years of focus on the Middle East, including posting US marines in Darwin.

Former president Barack Obama began the debate on Chinese foreign investment in Australia in November 2015 by raising questions with the Turnbull government about the purchase of the Port of Darwin by private Chinese investors, despite the fact that it had passed all approval processes within Australia.

If Mr Biden is elected it will be narrowly — a factor which will also put pressure on him to continue a strong policy on China. But he also has the potential to seek common ground with Mr Xi, using his stronger policies on climate change to seek some consensus in less confrontational areas.

“Despite having banged the China drum incessantly over the last six months, a president Biden will seek greater cooperative endeavour with Beijing,” says James Curran, professor of Modern History at the University of Sydney. “But it will be strictly limited — perhaps to climate change alone.

“Given the bipartisan consensus in Washington on the need to have a tough line on China, there is limited room for manoeuvre to transform the atmospherics in the relationship.”

Prof Curran says a Democrat administration could be expected to continue being tough on trade with China, its role the South China Sea and criticism of its Belt and Road Initiative.

“A Democrat administration will also apply somewhat more voluble pressure on Mr Xi over Xinjiang and Hong Kong,” he says. “Some of Biden’s team do talk about avoiding Cold War-style confrontation with China and press the case for ‘competition without catastrophe’.”