US Election: In 2020, it’s still the economy, stupid …

Exit polls showed the economy was easily the single-biggest factor influencing votes in the US election.

Young Trump supporters revel and rally in front of a Cuban restaurant in Miami, Florida. Picture: AFP

Joe Biden thought he’d read the national mood — Americans were more worried about coronavirus then they were about the economy. But as voters filed out of ballot booths, his miscalculation became clear.

Exit polls showed the economy was easily the single-biggest factor influencing votes in the US election. Those rating COVID-19 as a bigger influence on their ballot-box intentions were likely to be voted Democrat anyway.

And it may yet keep Donald Trump in the White House.

With COVID-19 raging out of control throughout the US, Mr Biden cast himself as the responsible candidate on managing the pandemic, shunning large events and putting a ramped-up public health response at the centre of his bid for the presidency.

Mr Trump, meanwhile, continued to assure huge rallies that the virus was close to beaten — even as his own top Adviser, Deborah Birx, was warning the country was “entering the most concerning and deadly phase of this pandemic.”

COVID-19 has killed more than 232,000 Americans, with the country leading the world in infection and death rates per capita.

But an exit poll conducted by Edison Research for major American television networks, said only two out of 10 voters nominated the pandemic as the most important issue. The economy rated as the top-order issue for one-third of voters polled, including six out of 10 voters who supported Mr Trump.

However, a separate survey conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press showed that 41 per cent of more than 100,000 voters surveyed in the eight days leading up to the election nominated COVID-19 as their top issue at the ballot box.

But three-quarters of those who said the coronavirus was the biggest issue in their minds said they would vote for Mr Biden. Less than a quarter of those who rated the pandemic as the most important issue intended to vote for Mr Trump.

Salvatore Babones, a political sociologist at the University of Sydney, said the importance of the coronavirus to voters’ intentions had been overstated. “For ordinary people, it’s the economy that matters most,” he said.

“The Democratic northeast that’s been hit very hard by the coronavirus is pumping for safety.

“But those are all states that were always going to vote for Biden. The states where people are more focused on jobs seem to be going for Trump.”

Professor Babones said Mr Biden’s decision to shun rallies may have cost him crucial votes.

“The Democrats ran an empty chair campaign against Donald Trump,” he said. “Campaigning would have made a difference.”

Jennifer Hunt, a lecturer at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University and a nonresident fellow at the United States Study Centre, said for many American voters, the economy and the coronavirus were inextricable.

“If you lose your job in the US, you lose your healthcare,” Dr Hunt said. “I think it would be difficult to detangle if people said the economy is the most important thing or healthcare or the pandemic is the most important thing — they’re really talking about the same thing.”

Dr Hunt said the pandemic had profoundly changed voting habits in this election, with the incredible surge in the number of mail-in votes due to COVID-19.

And she said Mr Biden’s decision to prioritise COVID-19 as an election issue was crucial to winning his base.

“I think Democrat voters expected him to set a good example. They expected him to adapt to the situation with remote rallies and the online Democratic Convention,” she said.