US election: A broken America is bitterly divided and Australia will feel the consequences
Donald Trump is close to the miracle win. But this is a broken America mired in trauma. Joe Biden could still win but failed to secure his predicted swing. In an ominous and fractured election-night result, both Trump and Biden have hailed victory.
The polls, pundits and elite institutions got it wrong. Trump has triggered another grassroots revolt by the voiceless Americans against establishment power.
This result will shake America, transfix the world and must have consequences for Australia.
While he has claimed victory, Trump has not yet won — a critical qualification. But he has inserted the wedge of discord, saying he will go to the Supreme Court to halt voting fraud and tweeting that the Democrats were trying to “steal” away his “big win”.
Economics and culture are the keys to any Trump victory. Such a win will make election 2020 even more important than election 2016. The Trumpian revolution would be affirmed. The transformation in US politics that Trump represents would be entrenched.
The tight result means Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party is complete. The old Republican Party is finished and Trump’s legacy will live for decades.
Despite four years of upheaval, anger and division, this vote is nearly the same as 2016. Trump’s opponents have been routed and may even have been defeated. Yet the risk of a contested result threatens civil acrimony and disorder. A bitter election campaign has ended in a bitterly tight result. There is no unity, no healing, just another dispute — over who won.
The democratic world will look at America with dismay.
Biden said he was “on track to win this election”, a bid by the frontrunner who faltered on the night.
A Biden defeat will trigger rage and disappointment within the Democratic Party and progressive movement. But a razor-thin Biden victory will come with grave doubts about his capacity to deliver his promises — to reunite America and fight COVID-19.
Any Trump win will constitute the greatest election resurgence in American history, but even a narrow defeat will perpetuate the Trumpian revolution and values he has injected into US politics. The Trump legions know they are on the edge of vindication.
America now exists as a fractured polity operating as two competing constellations. Early signs are Trump’s resurgence was driven by his priority on economic policy, his cultural revolt against the progressive establishment and, paradoxically, his ¬active resistance to the virus
The pandemic did not deliver the expected pro-Biden swing, with the Democrats failing again in Florida, the retirement mecca of grey power badly hit by COVID-19 deaths. Biden’s relentless campaign to make this vote a decisive referendum on the pandemic has misfired.
Trump’s vote is a triumph for his barnstorming tactics, the momentum he generated and the image he has cultivated — Trump is a celebrity anti-politician.
Trump runs a movement, he doesn’t just occupy the White House. He is a populist who smashes the usual norms by which politicians are judged. His strategy of creating division — widely seen as a fatal mistake — has worked by dividing the country to procure a near-majority.
This election is surely a turning point in American culture. Biden was the ultimate conventional politician, playing it safe, being a small target, staying hidden, being too smart and too old and failing to capture the imagination. It is tempting to think Trump turned his enemies into his allies, with the mainstream media topping the list.
They became Trump’s whipping boys to energise his base.
The result remains unknown but the conclusion is not: America is a fractured nation.
It is one country and two cultures, split everyway — urban and rural, coastal and inland, white and non-white, men and women, college-educated and working class. Trump has split the country into two groups of believers at political war with each other.
Imagine how big Trump would have won without any virus and the continuation of his late 2019 economic success. Trump may not be likeable but many people who don’t like him still vote for him.
Progressive ideology had taken a massive hit: its message was the need to repudiate Trump on standards, race, climate change, health, xenophobia, lying, tax dodging and jeopardising democracy.
Voiceless Americans were not listening. They belonged to a different constellation where Trump was seen as a messiah who speaks for them. The rust-belt states will decide the outcome: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And Trump has a sizeable lead in each state, so far.
The election has discredited the polls. One question is the extent to which a polling-induced perception of a Biden win helped trigger the Trump resurgence. In his late-night comments, Trump called the result “phenomenal” and acknowledged the “incredible movement” that backed him.
“We did win this election,” he said when announcing Republicans would go to the Supreme Court because there was a “major fraud” under way by his opponents. It is vital for US democracy that the election is decided on the count, not in the courts.