Boris’s Britain: 99 days to find a way out of the Brexit mire

The clock is ticking on Johnson’s “do or die” Brexit deadline. What’s next? | SCENARIOS

Boris Johnson leaves his campaign headquarters after being declared Britain’s new PM. Picture: Getty Images.

When Boris Johnson takes office at 10 Downing Street this afternoon he will have exactly 99 days before his self-imposed “do or die” Brexit deadline. How might those 99 days pan out, and what are the potential outcomes for Mr Johnson and the country at large?

Scenario 1: The national hero

After fraught negotiations and a showdown at a G7 summit in Biarritz, Mr Johnson wins key concessions from European leaders, who agree to replace the backstop in the face of a threatened no-deal Brexit. This agreement is built around a commitment to implement alternative arrangements using technology and customs facilitation to check goods away from the Irish border.

Mr Johnson puts the revised deal to the Commons and it is ratified. Emergency legislation is introduced to put the deal into law and Britain leaves the European Union on October 31. Buoyed by his success the prime minister goes to the country and the Conservatives win a landslide.

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Scenario 2: The Houdini act

European leaders stand firm and decline to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement but agree to a more detailed timetable for future trade talks and measures, including independent arbitration on whether the EU is using “best endeavours” to ensure that the Irish backstop will never need be used. Mr Johnson claims this as victory and puts the deal to MPs amid a rebellion from about two dozen hardcore Tory Brexiteers. It passes thanks to Labour MPs in Leave seats who defy Jeremy Corbyn and vote with the government. Brexit takes place on October 31 and Mr Johnson calls an election. The Brexit Party fields candidates on a manifesto to rip up the deal but the Conservatives win with a comfortable majority.

Scenario 3: The minor betrayal

Talks in Brussels drag on but a compromise is struck at an emergency meeting of EU leaders in mid October. Mr Johnson puts this deal to parliament and it passes, though with not enough time to put the legislation into effect before October 31. Mr Johnson says it is in the national interest to rip up his “do or die” pledge and asks for a short technical extension to get the legislation through parliament.

Scenario 4: The grand betrayal that leads to a second referendum

Mr Johnson secures a slightly modified deal in Brussels based on protocols and assurances, but furious Tory Brexiteers join forces with Labour, which is now committed to a second referendum, to defeat the proposal in the Commons. Mr Johnson then performs an abrupt U-turn and announces that a second referendum is the only way to break the deadlock. With government backing, legislation for this new referendum is passed with an overwhelming majority. The options on the ballot paper are Mr Johnson’s deal, no deal or remain.

Scenario 5: The grand betrayal that leads to an election

Faced with a breakdown of Brexit talks and an implacable parliamentary majority against no deal, Mr Johnson goes to Brussels to ask for yet another Brexit extension and calls a general election. He campaigns for the mandate to pursue a no-deal Brexit while Labour campaigns on the promise that it will offer to hold a second referendum

Scenario 6: Defying parliament

Talks in Brussels break down and Mr Johnson announces that he will take Britain out of the EU without a deal on October 31. European leaders hold a crisis summit to prepare for no deal and draw up a strategy for handling the political chaos expected to be unleashed by mid-October. Labour brings forward a motion of no confidence in the government but it is narrowly defeated because of abstentions by a handful of Mr Corbyn’s MPs in Leave seats. Having survived the vote, Mr Johnson insists that he has a mandate to prorogue parliament so that he can prevent further efforts to thwart Brexit and the United Kington leaves without a deal on October 31.

Scenario 7: A good no-deal

Talks in Brussels drag on with Mr Johnson insisting that he remains confident of a deal. But they collapse at a summit of European Union leaders on October 17. Mr Johnson does not ask the EU for an extension and European leaders do not offer one after President Macron of France says that Britain must choose between revoking Brexit or a no-deal departure. Mr Johnson returns to London and puts the choice to MPs, who narrowly vote for no deal. Britain leaves without a deal but disruption is not as great as was predicted or feared. Markets respond calmly and there is no financial meltdown. With goodwill on both sides to avoid checks on the Irish border the issue recedes. President Trump announces that he will fast-track a new trade deal with the UK. On the back of better-than-expected polling, Mr Johnson calls an election and wins an overall majority.

Scenario 8: Chaotic failure

A no-deal Brexit triggers recession and the loss of thousands of jobs, with Britain bearing the brunt of the crisis. There are food shortages as shoppers stockpile goods. Amid the disruption Mr Johnson loses a vote of confidence. Mr Corbyn fights the election on a manifesto pledge to re-open talks with Brussels and wins a landslide.

The Times