Zelensky’s popularity sinks after nearly three years’ war
He may have rallied Ukraine against Russia, but war-weariness and army corruption rows have hurt his image and most voters would prefer he not seek a second term.
In the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when the Kremlin’s forces were on the outskirts of Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a defiant message.
“We are all here,” he said outside the presidential office as his allies stood behind him. “We are all here defending our independence and our state.”
His words boosted the morale of his besieged nation and sent his popularity soaring – at home and abroad. On visits to the West to rally support, the former comedian was greeted with standing ovations by parliaments in Europe and the US Congress.
Yet almost three years on, with Ukraine’s frontline defences in danger of crumbling, Zelensky’s popularity is fading and few of his countryfolk see him as their next president.
Potential rival
An opinion poll of 1200 Ukrainians published this week by the Social Monitoring Centre in Kyiv found only 16 per cent would vote for him. The survey, the most comprehensive since the 2022 invasion, also found about 60 per cent would prefer Zelensky not to stand.
“It’s very difficult to be a popular president when you have had a full-scale war for three years,” Oleksandra Ustinova, a Ukrainian MP, said. “People are tired and almost everyone has someone they have lost. That’s a huge challenge for Zelensky.”
Top of the poll with 27 per cent was Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces who has served as the ambassador to Britain since July.
Zaluzhny, who was dismissed by Zelensky in February after rumours of a disagreement over the handling of the war, is also Ukraine’s most trusted figure, the poll showed. He has yet to openly declare any political ambitions but many analysts saw his appointment to a diplomatic post in London as an attempt by Zelensky to sideline him.
It remains unclear when Ukrainians will be able to vote again. The president’s term of office ended in May but elections have been suspended indefinitely under martial law introduced in 2022. Most people support the move, citing the dangers and problems of staging an election during a war.
But rumours persist in Kyiv that the policy will be reversed next year, if only to counter Russia’s narrative that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader. The issue has taken on a new importance before Donald Trump’s return.
“The Ukrainians have been planning for the possibility of Trump coming back for a while,” Andrew Wilson, professor in Ukrainian studies at University College London, said. “Russian propaganda about Zelensky’s illegitimacy is getting some traction in Republican circles.”
Zelensky said before his victory in 2019 that he would not run for a second term but he has since stated he would stand if they were held in wartime.
“A lot of the talk about early elections is predicated on the assumption that it’s best to hold them before Zelensky’s popularity slides further,” Wilson said. “The presidential office is perfectly capable of cutting rivals down to size.”
American dilemma
Keith Kellogg, a retired US general who is Trump’s pick to be Ukraine envoy, suggested Washington could cut arms supplies to Kyiv if Zelensky refused to enter ceasefire negotiations.
President Vladimir Putin has said Russia would halt its attacks only if Ukraine surrendered territory and renounced ambitions to join NATO, which Kyiv has described as equivalent to capitulation.
Illia Ponomarenko, a Ukrainian journalist, said three years of war had left people wanting to escape its horrors, “even at a very steep price”.
He added: “However, Donald Trump’s promise to stop the war within 24 hours may lead to scenarios that align with the Kremlin’s demands – scenarios that would be inherently unacceptable and rejected even by a war-weary society.”
Critics have accused Zelensky of failing to react quickly to challenges, while surrounding himself with people from the comedy studio he co-founded more than 20 years ago. Corruption in the armed forces has tarnished his image, although there is no evidence that he himself has been guilty of illicit dealings.
Enlistment
There is also a danger his popularity could plummet further if he goes ahead with America’s suggestion that Ukraine should begin sending younger men to the front. An official in President Biden’s administration said this week Ukraine should lower the minimum age at which men could be mobilised from 25 to 18.
“Ukraine is not mobilising … enough soldiers to replace their battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia’s growing military,” the official said.
Ukraine’s MPs lowered the minimum age from 27 to 25 last year but the decision was so sensitive Zelensky waited almost a year before approving it.
Ustinova, who leads the Ukrainian parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, said the move would be disastrous. “This would be a clear signal for people to get their children out [of Ukraine] before they turn 18,” she said.
It was perhaps inevitable that Zelensky’s leadership would lose its shine. No Ukrainian president, apart from Leonid Kuchma whose 1999 re-election was marred by suspicions of fraud, has won a second term since the country gained independence from the Soviet Union.
“Maintaining popularity in this country is incredibly challenging,” Ponomarenko said.
“It is a pattern we’ve seen before. We elect a new saviour as president … and ensure their landslide defeat in the next election.”
Despite growing dissatisfaction with Zelensky and uncertainty over the war, the country’s youngest president is likely to go down in history as the man who stood up to Putin and inspired Ukraine.
Ponomarenko said: “[He] found the strength not to break, succumb to cowardice or temptation, and instead rallied the nation in its darkest hour.
“I sincerely hope Zelensky has the wisdom to retire with honour once circumstances allow for elections.”
The Times
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