Why Nicola Sturgeon quit as Scottish First Minister

Nicola Sturgeon departs Bute House in Edinburgh, Scotland, on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

Nicola Sturgeon returned to Bute House from the funeral of an SNP stalwart with her mind made up.

On Tuesday afternoon, local time, she picked up the phone to her most loyal lieutenants – John Swinney, the deputy first minister, and Keith Brown, deputy leader of the SNP – and told them her decision.

The pair had been “good counsel” since the end of last week, when she started serious discussions about leaving office. Once they had been informed of her decision, the first minister summoned two of her closest aides into her office and told them: “We are doing this.”

Phone calls were then made to cabinet ministers and other close allies. In some cases Sturgeon asked aides to make the call in case she broke down in tears on the phone.

In every case, the response was the same: “Is there anything I can do to change your mind?” Then there was an acceptance that Sturgeon had made her mind up and – after leading the Scottish government for eight years, the longest of any first minister, including through the Covid-19 pandemic – that she had earned the right to call her own time in office.

Sturgeon later joked that the only way they could have convinced her to stay was by reminding her that she would owe Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, £50 ($87) as part of a bet the pair had made over who would stay in post the longest.

Some of the calls were more difficult than others for practical reasons. The Scottish parliament is in recess this week, complicating contacting politicians who are abroad. This was perhaps best illustrated by constitution secretary Angus Robertson tweeting his tribute from Antigua.

It became clear that something was happening that had upset many of Sturgeon’s allies. Then, when a calling notice appeared for a press conference at Bute House, the first minister’s official residence, giving only 90 minutes’ notice it was clear a significant announcement was coming. Officials tried to remain tight-lipped, but the fact that multiple aides advised journalists strongly to attend gave the game away.

Nevertheless, some of her supporters were in the dark, with elected politicians unaware of any movement even as journalists were making calls asking if she was resigning.

Sturgeon is known for having an incredibly tight inner circle, but some of them were consulted only late in the decision-making process. She spoke primarily to her family when she started mulling her departure.

As well as Peter Murrell, her husband and chief executive of the SNP, she spoke to her parents, who are said to have been a “big part” in her decision. Her family worries about the pressures of high office and the turmoil of recent years, not only the pandemic but the acrimonious disintegration of her relationship with Alex Salmond, the former first minister and her political mentor.

Murrell may be a confidant, but he has also been a recent political headache. The final question at Wednesday night’s (AEDT) press conference was about whether the first minister had been interviewed by police over an investigation into whether £600,000 of money raised to campaign for independence had been used inappropriately. Sturgeon declined to answer, amid multiple briefings that detectives had spoken to her, but her aides later denied that any interview had taken place.

The subject of the SNP’s finances has been a tricky one, with scrutiny intensifying after it emerged that Murrell had loaned the party £107,000 the day after the SNP stated that there was nothing to see in the £600,000 investigation. The waters are murky around exactly what is going on and opponents of Sturgeon smell blood.

Other policy areas have been difficult for Sturgeon, particularly around new laws that would make it easier for people to change their gender, which have been blocked by the UK government. But it is her plans for independence that have caused the most internal consternation.

Since the Supreme Court ruled in November that Holyrood cannot hold a unilateral independence referendum, attention has turned to Sturgeon’s “plan B” of using the next general election as a de facto ballot on the constitutional question. Under her plan, the first minister would begin exit talks with the next prime minister if the SNP and other nationalist parties won more than 50 per cent of the popular vote. Multiple MPs and MSPs have criticised the tactic with Stewart McDonald, the former defence spokesman and a Sturgeon loyalist, last week publishing a paper warning the move would damage the independence movement’s international credibility.

A special conference is due to take place next month, where SNP members will have the chance to vote on whether to adopt the de facto referendum as policy. Stephen Flynn, the nationalist leader at Westminster, and Toni Giugliano, the party’s policy convener, both called for it to be postponed until a new leader is in place. Others agree.

Sources close to Sturgeon believe that the next leader being tied to a policy decided by members, rather than pushed through by the leadership, would signal to the wider independence movement that the grassroots has a proper voice. This suggestion was met with mirth by some frustrated by Sturgeon’s top-down approach.

The party’s ruling national executive committee pushed back by a week a meeting scheduled for Saturday to discuss the conference. It is understood that local branches have flooded SNP headquarters with amendments.

The committee will hold an emergency meeting this evening to thrash out the timeline of the leadership contest, which is expected to last six weeks. Potential runners and riders include Brown, Robertson and Swinney, as well as Kate Forbes, the highly rated finance secretary. Ash Regan, the former community safety minister, who quit the government over the gender reforms, has told friends that she is likely to run.

Sturgeon had been at the funeral of Allan Angus, an SNP stalwart known for his dancing at party conference ceilidhs, on Tuesday morning at Baldarroch Crematorium, near Crathes, Aberdeenshire, which allies said had “cemented” the decision to go.

But in the days before that pictures on Sturgeon’s Instagram were from the top of the Pentland Hills just outside Edinburgh; sunrise over Arthur’s Seat, the ancient volcano that overshadows the Scottish parliament; and the Campsies, north of her Glasgow home.

“The first minister has been spending a lot of time up the hills pondering her future,” one source said. “I was pretty taken aback with what she decided.”

Theresa May, who paid one of the most sincere tributes to Sturgeon, famously decided to call the 2017 snap general election – a contest that dealt electoral blows to both the Conservatives and the SNP – while walking in the Welsh hills Between that and leaving office with the big constitutional question seemingly in deadlock and a party that is increasingly turning on itself, Sturgeon may have more in common with the former British prime minister than either would immediately admit.

The Times