What Ukraine needs to win the war against Russia

Workmen fix a pipe in the crater left by a Russian missile strike near Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv on Monday. Nineteen people were killed by the strikes across Ukraine. Picture: Getty Images

As the cruise missile hurtled overhead on Monday a few Ukrainian soldiers defiantly fired their rifles, with little prospect of doing much to halt President Putin’s assault.

That was until one brought a weapon that had been designed to shoot down low-flying aircraft. He fired, destroying the missile, to the lusty cheers of his comrades.

The soldier’s success was said to have been the first case of a cruise missile being shot down by a “man-portable air defence system”, or Manpads. However, it also illustrated the challenge facing President Zelensky’s forces in defending cities from the renewed Russian aerial assault.

Of the 84 missiles fired from as far away as Belarus and the Caspian Sea on Monday, more than half were shot down, according to the Ukrainian defence ministry. Yet many struck the targets they intended, including communications centres and civilian infrastructure.

Zelensky is clear what is needed to maintain Kyiv’s momentum in the war: access to the best western air defence to protect civilian and military infrastructure. Ukrainian embassies have been instructed to lobby allies for greater supplies.

Workmen fix a pipe in the crater left by a Russian missile strike near Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv on Monday. Nineteen people were killed by the strikes across Ukraine

The assault across Ukraine has galvanised international support to arm Kyiv. Germany has been spurred into action after four months of empty promises by delivering its lorry-mounted Iris-T SL surface-to-air guided missiles, which have a range of 25 miles.

However, experts say that to protect both its civilians and the army, Ukraine needs more air defence systems. Leaders of the G7 met on Tuesday to discuss a western response to the attacks and NATO defence ministers will meet on Wednesday and Thursday.

Kyiv has received Soviet-era S-300 surface-to-air missiles from Slovakia, portable Stinger missiles from the US and Starstreak surface-to-air missiles from the UK. However, what Zelensky really wants is Nasams (national advanced surface-to-air missile system), with a range of 31 miles.

President Biden has pledged that eight will be sent to Ukraine, but these are still months away from delivery. Speeding up their deployment would go a long way towards neutralising the threat of random Russian missile attacks.

A woman opens an emergency food package this month in Svyatohirsk, Donetsk oblast, Ukraine.

Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence think tank, suggests Nasams could protect cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Lviv. “It’s primarily used by NATO countries, including the US, for defence over cities. I suspect they will be used to defend cities and critical infrastructure,” he said.

Meanwhile, to keep up Ukrainian momentum in the counteroffensive that has resulted in an extensive retreat by Russian forces Kyiv also needs to maintain its superior artillery range. Biden announced last month that the US would deliver 18 Himars (high mobility artillery rocket system), a lorry-mounted launcher that can fire GPS-guided missiles at a maximum range of 50 miles, to complement the 16 that have already been delivered. A combination of Himars and M777 howitzers, which have a range of 40km, have helped Ukrainian forces to outgun the Russians on the plains of eastern Ukraine.

Kyiv also argues that a supply of western tanks would accelerate the Russians’ retreat. Ukraine has captured more tanks from the Russians than it has received from western allies. Ukraine would also ideally like the US to send its army tactical missile system, a ground-fired missile with a range of 190 miles that is capable of carrying twice as many explosives as Kyiv’s present capability.

Ukraine says the weapons would act as a deterrent to missile strikes, but western countries have been reluctant to send long-range missiles, fearing they could be used to strike Russian territory and risk escalation.

The Times