What Alexei Navalny’s death means for Putin

Despite being behind bars since January 2021, Alexei Navalny had remained a thorn in the Kremlin’s side. Now the Russian opposition has been deprived of its best-known and bravest figure, dimming hopes for a brighter future.

Vladimir Putin ‘couldn’t hold back his smile’ as he visited a factory in the Urals region, a critic said. Picture: POOL / AFP

Vladimir Putin was all smiles when the news broke that Alexei Navalny had died in a Russian prison colony in the Arctic.

Although the Russian president did not mention the death of his biggest domestic critic, there was no mistaking the twinkle in his eyes or the grin that spread across his face as he spoke to factory workers in the Urals region.

Putin has much to be pleased about. Navalny’s death has deprived the Russian opposition of its best-known and bravest figure. Many had hoped that Navalny would one day emerge from prison and lead the country into a brighter future. Those hopes have been extinguished.

Despite being behind bars since January 2021, Navalny had remained a thorn in the Kremlin’s side. He used his frequent court appearances to speak out against Putin and urge Russians to rise up against his regime. He also criticised the invasion of Ukraine.

Yet there were limits to Navalny’s reach from his cell, 1200 miles (1930km) from Moscow. His allies had been killed, exiled or imprisoned.

Navalny during a court hearing in 2021. He had described the conflict in Ukraine as a war crime. Picture: AFP/Getty Images

Although Navalny will become a martyr for the Russian opposition, his death is unlikely to affect the rubberstamp presidential elections next month at which Putin will secure a new six-year term. If his death had occurred a decade ago, when he was able to lead mass protests against Putin, the consequences for the regime would have been unpredictable.

Today’s Russia is a very different place. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has cracked down on even the smallest signs of dissent. The opposition no longer has the strength to mount even a symbolic challenge. Channel One, Russia’s main television station, covered Navalny’s death in just 32 seconds as the sixth item on its evening news program.

Ivan Zhdanov, one of Navalny’s top aides, said that Putin had ordered the murder of the opposition leader during the Munich security conference to send a message to Russians and the West. He said: “This is a political murder in its purest form.”

Navalny’s death could have an impact on any potential talks involving western countries over the war, an unnamed Kremlin official told Meduza, an outlawed Russian opposition website. “Coming to an agreement after this will be impossible,” the official said.

Although Navalny’s death may change little in Russia in the immediate future, his legacy will inspire Putin’s foes in the years to come. “Navalny changed Russia and changed us all,” wrote Meduza.

“He helped us find the faith we’ll need to survive the rule of those who took control of Russia – and to destroy whatever will remain of them.”

The Times