‘We have lost this war’: British PM left with no choice but to lock down Covid-ridden England

A sobering meeting with health officials and the failure of his Whac-A-Mole strategy left British Prime Minister Boris Johnson with only the lockdown card to play.

In a fiery exchange at the dispatch box less than two weeks ago, British prime minister Boris Johnson accused Keir Starmer, leader of the opposition, of wanting to “turn the lights out” across the nation as he resisted Labour’s calls for a two-week circuit-breaker over the half-term holiday.

Now it is Johnson himself who is preparing to introduce a second national lockdown. The new “tough national measures” come into force on Thursday and will last until December 2 – 27 days in total. They will see people told to “stay at home”, with the closure of non-essential shops and all pubs, bars and restaurants, except for takeaways.

The measures are expected to be voted on in parliament on Wednesday. But despite the expectation that they will comfortably pass, the announcement of a nationwide lockdown capped a week of indecision and growing panic in Downing Street.

That was compounded by a leak of the plan, which forced the government to bring forward its announcement to last night, rather than Monday as planned.

So chaotic was the prime minister’s rollout of the news that it was claimed the BBC had warned him that last night’s repeatedly delayed speech would not be broadcast unless he hit its 6.30pm deadline. One source remarked: “They weren’t going to move Strictly [a popular dancing competition].”

It was not the first such delay: such was the paralysis in No 10 last week that three times press conferences were pencilled in only to be cancelled.

“They just didn’t know what to do or say,” said a senior government insider. Another source added: “There was genuine panic about what needed to be done and no-one seemed able to make a decision.”

A man wearing fancy dress is seen taking part in a dance off in Leicester Square during Halloween celebrations on October 31 in London, England. Picture: Getty

On Friday, after days of silence in the face of grave warnings from the government’s scientific advisers, the so-called quad – comprised of Johnson, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, and Michael Gove, the cabinet office minister – met to discuss the situation.

Sir Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, presented data from the NHS and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which suggested that hospitals would become overwhelmed by the second week of December. Ministers were also warned that deaths could peak at 4,000 a day.

But less than two hours after the meeting had concluded, the No 10 press office learned that ITV’s Robert Peston had received a “read-out of the whole meeting”. “It was pretty quick by even this government’s standards,” said one source.

Immediately many in No 10 and the Treasury suspected Hancock, who has been one of the leading doves in the cabinet who favours tighter restrictions.

“It was clearly to ensure the last nail in the coffin of national lockdown,” a government insider said. “Johnson was furious about the leak,” another source added. “The knives are definitely out for Hancock if he is found to be the source of the leak.”

Last night, an ally of Hancock said such claims were untrue and the health secretary “was focused on dealing with the global pandemic and protecting lives, not briefing journalists”.

Johnson, however, was more forthcoming. Yesterday, he wrote to MPs: “Folks – so sorry that you’ve had to hear about all this from the newspapers today. Let me assure you that the leak was not a No 10 briefing and indeed we have launched an inquiry to catch the culprit.

“I assure you we are doing what we believe is best for the country and to ensure that the NHS is not overwhelmed in a way that could cost many thousands of lives. There is a clear way out of this, with better medication and rapid testing – and the genuine prospect of a vaccine.

Diners out and about for Halloween in Soho on October 31. Picture: Getty

“Our country will recover well. But I am afraid there are no easy short term options. Best, Boris.”

The leak was raised at yesterday’s cabinet meeting when ministers, including Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, who was sacked from Theresa May’s government following an inquiry into a leak from a National Security Council meeting, took aim at the snitcher [slang for ‘informer’]. “Gavin’s intervention left some around the cabinet table literally open-mouthed,” said one source.

Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the Commons, is understood to be furious that details about the lockdown measures were made public before the prime minister could give a statement to parliament, in a breach of protocol. This has further added to the pressure on Johnson to identify the culprit.

The decision to introduce a second national lockdown will come as a personal embarrassment to Johnson, who repeatedly ruled out such a move despite tougher restrictions being introduced in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The British prime minister is also under pressure after rejecting the recommendations of his scientific advisers in September, who called on him to introduce a two-week circuit-breaking lockdown in an effort to avoid a longer national lockdown later in the winter.

Vallance and Whitty also said recently that they did not believe the basic tier three restrictions, which now cover 18 million people in England, would be enough to reduce the R-rate to below one, the level at which the pandemic would shrink.

Their comments coincided with documents which were released by the government’s Sage advisory group, which revealed that ministers had been warned for weeks that the pandemic was on course to breach the “reasonable worst case scenario” drafted by the Cabinet Office. This assumed 85,000 deaths over the winter and has been the basis of National Health Service planning.

A No 10 source said: “There is a sense the prime minister has run out of road. The figures which were presented to him on Friday were so alarming, it simply left him with no other option. You just can’t unlearn those figures.

“This isn’t just about saving Christmas. There is real alarm that without further action hospitals will become so overwhelmed they will have to turn non-Covid patients away.”

Even Sunak, who has been one of the leading cabinet hawks in favour of easing restrictions to protect the economy, is understood to have conceded defeat.

“We have lost this war,” said one source close the chancellor. “The fact that France and Germany have gone back into a national lockdown has given the government the cover it needs to impose these new tougher measures.”

Relations between No 10 and the Tory backbenchers are strained. Last night (Saturday) Sir Desmond Swayne, a lockdown rebel and Conservative MP for New Forest West, said the new measures would prompt fury among MPs and raise further doubt about the government’s use of science.

He said: “I anticipate growing frustration and anger … about the economic damage, and growing scepticism over the science.”

David Davis, the former cabinet minister, said MPs would expect a vote on the new restrictions before they are introduced.

“This government needs to stop treating the House of Commons like a parish council. If they are to sell these measures to the rest of the country, they first need to sell them to MPs,” he said.

He added: “This government has been flip-flopping on this issue. The one thing backbenchers don’t like is having to defend position A, only to be told the next day that they need to defend position B and then position C.”

Owen Paterson, a former cabinet minister, warned yesterday that another lockdown could take its toll on people’s mental wellbeing.

Speaking publicly for the first time about the death of his wife, Rose, who took her own life in June, Paterson said: “The last lockdown was in glorious weather when people could get outside.

“This is going to be a very grim winter and it could have a very serious impact on mental health. This is why it is even more important that – if you are feeling in the least bit down or unhappy – to tell someone. Tell your family or a friend, tell a teacher or a work colleague.”

For many in the Commons, the question remains: what is the strategy?

The Sunday Times