Voters trust Trump more than Harris on immigration and crime

YouGov survey suggests likely Democratic nominee is more popular than Joe Biden — but fewer voters seem ready to accept a female president than when Hillary Clinton ran.

Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI and Patrick T. Fallon / AFP

Donald Trump remains ahead in the race for the US presidency with a lead of two points over Kamala Harris, according to polling by YouGov for The Times undertaken after President Biden’s decision to withdraw.

Trump’s lead is lower than it was over Biden in recent weeks, but slightly higher than before Biden’s television debate shambles that led to him dropping out and endorsing Harris, the vice-president, to replace him as the Democratic nominee.

The polling shows the election is still Trump’s to lose with a little over three months to go until polling day on November 5. He is viewed more favourably than Harris: 44 per cent of likely voters have a very or somewhat favourable view of the former president, compared with 41 per cent for Harris, while 50 per cent view him unfavourably and 51 per cent view her unfavourably.

He remains clearly the most trusted candidate on the two big issues of the economy and immigration, and is also ahead on foreign policy and crime. Harris, meanwhile, leads Trump in trust on handling the issues of abortion and the environment.

“Here’s somebody who hasn’t done any campaigning as a presidential candidate and hasn’t been nearly as front and centre as Biden over the last four years,” Carl Bialik, vice-president of data science and US politics editor at YouGov, said. “Nevertheless, she is starting out as strong as Biden was.

“There’s a belief that it’s a real disadvantage to be a woman running for high office.” Picture: Chris Kleponis / AFP

“Biden withdrawing and Harris coming forward as the presumptive candidate all runs up against any effects we might have seen from continued fallout from the TV debate, the assassination attempt, the convention and the selection of JD Vance.

“Certainly the convention and running-mate nomination can be positive events that give a candidate a bump, so we may be seeing the cancelling-out of those effects by the change from Biden to Harris.”

The poll also outlines a range of personality traits linked by voters to the candidates set to battle for the White House in November: Trump is more likely than Harris to be called egotistical (38 points more likely), crazy (+22), patriotic (+19), tough (+14) and confident (+10). Harris is more likely to be called cautious (+11), timid (+11), steady (+7) and smart (+6).

Voters were also asked for their view on whether the US was ready to elect a woman as president: 54 per cent said yes, 30 per cent said no and 16 per cent were undecided. This was a more negative result than YouGov found when it asked the same question in May 2015, the month after Hillary Clinton announced her presidential campaign, when 63 per cent of registered voters said the country was ready for a female leader.

“If you look at the question of whether people are ready for a woman president now versus 2015, you might hope for nine years of progress. Instead, you see a significant drop in whether Americans think the country is ready,” Bialik said. “There’s this widespread belief that women would have no chance with a big chunk of the electorate.

“When we ask people whether Harris should pick a man or a woman to be her running-mate, most people said it did not matter. But 35 per cent said she should pick a man and 6 per cent said she should pick a woman. There’s a belief that it’s a real disadvantage to be a woman running for high office.”

The Times