Vladimir Putin piles pressure on Belarus to enter Ukraine war
More than 90 per cent of Belarusians are thought to be opposed to sending military to Ukraine but Lukashenko may not be able to resist Putin.
President Lukashenko of Belarus was once described by a rival as “stupid, but wily like a fox.” As Russia leans heavily on its smaller neighbour to enter the war in Ukraine and surrender most if not all of its sovereignty, Lukashenko will need all of his cunning to hold out.
Belarus, which relies on cheap Russian energy and loans, has allowed Moscow to use its territory as a launch pad for its disastrous attempt to seize Kyiv in February and for missile attacks on Ukrainian cities but Lukashenko has insisted his troops will not take part in the fighting.
More than 90 per cent of Belarusians are thought to be opposed to sending their armed forces to Ukraine. Even Lukashenko, who has ruled the country with an iron grip for 28 years, is unable to ignore such opposition to the war. “Lukashenko does everything to please Putin. But there are two things he is not prepared to give way on: sovereignty and non-participation in hostilities in Ukraine,” Konstantin Kalachyov, a Russian political analyst, said.
Yet something is clearly brewing in Belarus. On Monday, hours before President Putin flew into Minsk on his first visit to the country for more than three years, the Russian defence ministry said that the armed forces of the two former Soviet states were conducting joint military exercises in Belarus. The Belarusian defence ministry also ended snap military drills to check the “combat readiness” of its troops.
There was no public mention of the war when Putin and Lukashenko held a joint press conference in the opulent surroundings of the presidential palace in Minsk. A series of tame journalists asked questions on economic and security co-operation but studiously avoided any reference to the conflict raging in neighbouring Ukraine.
In private, however, Putin is likely to have piled pressure on Lukashenko to do his bidding. Ukraine has warned that Russia could launch a new attack from Belarus as early as next month and there are fears that Russia could be plotting “false flag” attacks on critical Belarusian infrastructure that would boost public support for the war.
Analysts say, however, that Lukashenko may have scored a win on Monday, deflecting efforts to draw him directly into the war by talking up the “threat” to Belarus from Nato.
Putin offered Lukashenko training for the crews of Belarusian warplanes that have been modified to carry nuclear weapons. The move was necessary, the Russian leader said, because of what he called an “escalating” situation on the two countries’ borders. Russia has also provided Belarus with nuclear-capable Iskander-M missile systems.
Lukashenko may realise that he can resist the pressure for only so long. “Russia can manage without us, but we can’t [manage] without Russia,” he said.
Last week the Belarusian parliament gave initial approval to a law allowing officials and soldiers found guilty of high treason to be sentenced to death by firing squad. The move was widely viewed as a warning that dissent will not be tolerated in the event of Belarus entering the war.
In the event, the small and inexperienced Belarusian army is not powerful enough to sway the conflict in Russia’s favour. Only 15,000 of its troops are believed to be combat-ready. However, analysts say Ukraine would be forced to redeploy troops from the east and south of the country, potentially giving Russia the upper hand in those regions.
Lukashenko has long sought to play off Russia against the West. That is no longer an option since he crushed the massive protests that erupted after rigged presidential elections in 2020, turning him into a pariah.
During Monday’s press conference Lukashenko gestured at Putin and said: “The two of us are co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet. We have only one dispute: who is more [toxic]. Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] says that I am. But I’m starting to think that he is.”
The comment was supposed to be sarcastic but critics in Russia and Ukraine hailed what they said was a rare moment of honesty by the dictator. A Ukrainian Telegram channel wrote: “Lukashenko finally told the truth.”
The Times
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