Upbeat Johnson is still in danger

Allies who feel war has secured the UK prime minister’s position by taking focus off home may be in for a shock.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson after a meeting with the Canadian and Dutch Prime Ministers focusing mainly on the situation in Ukraine. Picture: Alberto Pezzali/Pool/AFP

Less than a month ago Boris Johnson was locked in a relentless fight for survival. The headlines were dominated by questions about his future as he faced a police inquiry over allegations that he had attended six parties in Downing Street that broke lockdown rules.

Johnson was finished, critics said, if he received a fixed penalty notice. The Conservative Party, which sells itself as the party of law and order, could not countenance a sitting prime minister who had broken the law.

Today Johnson and his new team in No 10 are confident that he will survive even if he is fined. Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, they say, has proved a “paradigm shift” in political and public perception of the prime minister.

“His critics are silent because if they continue to push for the prime minister to go then navel-gazing doesn’t even describe it,” one cabinet loyalist said. “They would look self-interested and obsessed. They would not just be damaging the UK [in triggering a leadership contest] but the entire war effort and the Ukrainian people.”

Even Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, declined on Sunday to repeat his call for Johnson to go, arguing instead that it was a time for unity.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Behind the scenes things are far less rosy than Johnson’s allies would like to suggest. Picture: Henry Nicholls – WPA Pool/Getty Images

The latest YouGov poll for The Times, conducted last week, found that Labour’s lead over the Tories had fallen to two points, its lowest since December. While only 26 per cent of voters think Johnson would make a better prime minister than Starmer, 41 per cent believe he is handling the Ukraine crisis well, with 33 per cent saying he is handling it badly.

Yet behind the scenes things are far less rosy than Johnson’s allies would like to suggest. There is still significant dysfunction in No 10 and across Whitehall as the government has struggled to match rhetoric on Russia with action.

Having pledged to sanction dozens of oligarchs, the government has looked flat-footed as the UK was forced to play catch-up with the EU and US.

Officials have said that it could take months to identify oligarchs’ assets and sanction them, warning about the legal risk, particularly of large payouts.

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, caused controversy after saying that she supports British citizens who want to fight Russia in Ukraine. After Russia took to nuclear sabre-rattling, directly blaming Truss, Johnson and Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, publicly contradicted her.

There is a similar lack of co-ordination over refugees. On Sunday Priti Patel, the home secretary, said she was drawing up plans to let Ukrainian refugees in to the UK even if they had no family ties. The plans were news to many Whitehall departments and have been publicly rejected by No 10.

Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Picture: via AFP

There are also growing concerns in the Treasury that a geopolitical crisis will become an economic one. Average annual energy bills are set to pass pounds 3,000 in October after the threat of sanctions pushed gas prices to new highs. Inflation could peak at 8.4 per cent in spring, the highest since 1982.

Rishi Sunak’s plans to cut income tax by 2p in the pound in the run-up to the next election already look to be at risk.

The Ukraine crisis has also led to a recalibration of the conversation about who should succeed Johnson, as Wallace’s popularity has surged.

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s popularity has surged. Picture: Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

The defence secretary has risen to the top of ConservativeHome’s league table of popularity among activists while Truss, who topped it for a year, has slipped to fifth.

Wallace dismissed talk that he could be prime minister, telling The Sunday Telegraph that his leadership campaign fund “amounts to pounds 1.75”, but did not miss the opportunity of a swipe at the social media profile of Truss and Sunak, whose popularity has also faded as cost-of-living concerns mount, saying that rather than posting on Instagram “the public want you to do your job”.

And as everyone in Westminster knows, things could quickly change. In the coming weeks, the Metropolitan Police and Sue Gray will both report on Downing Street parties. The May local elections, widely expected to be grim for the Conservatives, are seen by backbenchers as a key moment for Johnson’s leadership. As even one loyalist minister said: “If they think it’s in their interest, Tory MPs can be pretty ruthless.”

One Conservative opponent of Johnson’s leadership said those who think he is out of the woods are “hubristic”. They warned that Johnson would face more scrutiny over his associates, adding: “Great dangers lurk with Ben Elliot [the party chairman, whose business serves wealthy Russians and works with a Russian bank threatened with sanctions] and the Lebedev peerage.”

The Times