Ukrainian army may defy orders to retreat if Kyiv cedes Donbas to Russia
Trump’s push for Ukraine to cede territory where “Russia killed my family” faces fierce resistance from forces who’ve fought for 11 years.
On a block of bombed-out flats in Bilozerske, a town in Ukraine’s Donbas region, someone had scrawled: “Russia killed my family here. I will take revenge!”
The Donbas has suffered more than any other region since Putin first sent troops to Ukraine in 2014, before launching a full-scale invasion eight years later. Towns and cities have been wiped out, with at least 20,000 civilians killed by Russian bombs in Mariupol alone, according to President Zelensky.
“This is the same Donbas that, according to the Americans, we must give to Russia,” wrote Artem Kariakin, a Ukrainian soldier who uploaded a photograph of the graffiti last week.
Like many Ukrainian soldiers, Kariakin, who grew up in Donbas, pays little attention to frantic diplomacy aimed at bringing peace. “The less time you spend watching the news, the less you believe the war will end soon,” he added.
In an attempt to reach a peace deal, President Trump is trying to put pressure on Kyiv to hand over to Moscow the entirety of the Donbas, the collective name for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, so there can be a ceasefire by Christmas. The Kremlin said there can be no end to fighting unless Ukraine withdraws its forces, including from the heavily defended Donetsk region towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Yet, even if Zelensky wanted to cede land to Russia, Ukraine’s constitution states that territory can only be surrendered after a referendum, something near impossible during wartime. No referendum would be needed if Kyiv were to withdraw its forces without formally recognising Russian rule.
However, Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at Come Back Alive, a military-assistance charity, said that some sections of the armed forces would probably be opposed to orders to withdraw from the Donbas, with unpredictable consequences for national unity.
“When Ukrainians are asked to make unwarranted concessions then it smells like national humiliation – especially for those who fought for over 11 years,” he said.
Russia’s army occupies almost all of the Luhansk region and more than 80 per cent of Donetsk. Putin said that Russia will seize all of the Donbas unless Ukraine surrenders. Kyiv’s army is outnumbered, but Russia would probably lose tens of thousands of troops in battles for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Bielieskov said that, even if Ukraine were to cede the Donbas to Moscow, the Kremlin would be unlikely to call off its invasion. “From Russia’s point of view, all these [US-backed] plans are not about an actual [war] settlement, but about creating and exploiting rifts in Ukraine for another round of advances to strengthen even further its negotiating position.”
While Zelensky was supported by Kyiv’s European allies at a Downing Street meeting this week, the president’s authority was weakened by a corruption scandal which led to the resignation of Andriy Yermak, a senior adviser who was seen as the country’s second-most-powerful man.
The departure of his chief of staff was clearly a blow for Zelensky, but there are no indications that it influenced negotiations with the US.
Washington’s attempts to have Kyiv surrender land have been met with dismay in Ukraine, which considered the US a close ally.
Moscow signalled that its invasion of Ukraine is not solely about territory and its ultimate aim is to eliminate what it calls the war’s “root causes”. The term is shorthand for a pro-western Kyiv government.
Mikhail Kasyanov, Putin’s first prime minister, said the Russian leader was fixated on securing western recognition of Moscow’s rule in the entire Donbas region. Putin told Russians at the start of the war in 2022 that the Kremlin was seeking to “liberate” the region.
“That’s why he wants all of Donbas. This is about respect for him and his power,” Kasyanov said.
Putin appears either oblivious or entirely indifferent to the suffering Russia’s invasion has caused. When asked last week by a journalist about the “shock” felt by Russian-speakers in the Donbas who had seen their lives destroyed by the Kremlin’s forces, he said: “I didn’t understand the question, shocked by what?”
The Times
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