Ukraine invasion: Bombardment of base near Poland is Putin’s warning to the west

The worst is yet to come. The bombardment of a military base near Poland suggests Putin now seems bent on retaliation against NATO.

The aftermath of the attack on the base in Yavoriv between the city of Lviv and the Polish border. Picture: Reuters

The worst is yet to come. After 17 days of war in which Russian forces have stumbled and failed to complete their objectives in Ukraine, they are turning to a different scale of brutality.

Despite predictions of an early shock-and-awe advance on Kyiv, similar to the US armoured drive to Baghdad in the 2003 Iraq war, which was achieved in 17 days, the Russians left Kyiv marginally untouched and aimed their main focus elsewhere.

A patient is taken to Novoiavorivsk District Hospital after an airstrike on the nearby Yavoriv military complex. Picture: Getty Images

It is possible, seeing it from a purely Russian military viewpoint, to imagine that the attacks on the cities of Kharkiv, Mariupol, Mykolaiv and Kherson were all partly aimed at terrorising the citizens of Kyiv into submission before their troops, tanks and long-range artillery arrived at the capital. However, in the process, the Russian military has demonstrated its weaknesses and Ukraine’s strengths. Logistical back-up has always been the Russian army’s Achilles’ heel. Add to that the involvement of conscripts who appear ignorant of Putin’s war objectives, plus the failure to win air superiority, and the dismal performance of Russia’s supposedly top-tier battalion tactical groups - designed to bring mass combat power into a conflict zone - is there for all to see.

Irina Moprezova, 54, reacts in front of a house that was damaged in an aerial bombing in the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv over the weekend. Picture: AFP

This is why the invaders are resorting to increasingly ferocious warfare that does not take into account the killing of civilians and the destruction of private property.

This is part of Russia’s military doctrine, and the siege tactics used against other Ukrainian cities will now be brought to bear on an even greater scale on the capital. The Russians have self-propelled artillery systems with ranges of up to 30 miles, as well as Iskander ballistic missile launchers within easy reach of Kyiv. If there is a delay in what is expected to be a relentless assault on the capital, it will only be because of orders from commanders to wait until fuel and food supplies are in position.

The Russian military will use the offer of ceasefires, not as a gesture of peace or humanitarian concern, but as a way of regrouping for the siege of Kyiv.

Based on their failure to secure air superiority so far - in Nato doctrine always a priority war objective - there is no reason to suppose that Russian fighter aircraft will achieve this in the next few weeks. As a consequence, Nato’s weapons supply convoys crossing into western Ukraine are bound to be subjected to ballistic-missile and aerial bombing.

Evacuees from eastern Ukraine are seen outside the railway station in Lviv this month. Picture: AFP

The Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian military training base at Yavoriv, near the border with Poland, is a harbinger of what is to come. Russia’s military tactics have been undermined from the first day because of the anti-tank and anti-air weapons supplied by the US and 14 other countries. Putin now seems bent on retaliation against Nato.

The Times