UK Election 2019 vote puts Scotland, Boris Johnson on collision course

Surge in support for Scottish National Party in UK election set to renew calls for a second Scottish independence referendum as Nicola Sturgeon demands new powers.

Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon. Picture: Getty Images

Nicola Sturgeon will demand powers from Boris Johnson next week to hold a second Scottish independence referendum, arguing that the Scottish National Party’s election surge gives her a mandate for a ballot by the end of next year.

Civil servants have finalised a Scottish government document that makes the case for another constitutional contest. It will be sent to the prime minister on Tuesday or Wednesday as the Scottish first minister furthers her push to break up Britain.

The SNP won a resounding victory in Scotland, gaining 12 seats and securing 45 per cent of the vote, the same percentage of the electorate that supported separation in 2014.

It gave the party 47 of the country’s 59 seats, up from the 35 that it claimed in 2017. A candidate suspended from the SNP for sharing anti-Semitic material online won his seat from Labour’s Lesley Laird, the shadow Scottish secretary.

The Tories won six seats, down from 13. The Liberal Democrats remained on four and Labour has a single MP after winning seven seats two years ago.

Ms Sturgeon said that her party’s landslide win provided a fresh mandate for another ballot on independence next year. In a speech in Edinburgh yesterday (Friday), Ms Sturgeon confirmed that her ministers would publish next week “the detailed democratic case for a transfer of power to enable a referendum to be put beyond legal challenge”.

Standing in front of a lectern bearing the phrase Scotland’s Choice, she said: “Given what I fear the Tory government has in store for Scotland, that right to choose our own future has never been more important.

“So to the prime minister, let me be clear. This is not simply a demand that I or the SNP are making. It is the right of the people of Scotland — and you as the leader of a defeated party in Scotland have no right to stand in the way.”

After the [Edinburgh] Holyrood government’s document is published, the parliament will vote on the Referendums Bill, which sets the framework for a nationwide ballot. It is expected to pass.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives back at 10 Downing Street after visiting Buckingham Palace following his UK Election victory. Picture: Getty Images

Ms Sturgeon will also request from Mr Johnson a section 30 order, which would transfer the powers required to hold a referendum from London to Edinburgh. The constitution is a reserved power under the Scotland Act, which means that the Scottish parliament has to secure permission from Westminster to hold a vote.

Mr Johnson has repeatedly promised to reject any demand for another ballot and has strengthened his position with a big majority. He said last month that if there were any formal demand “we will mark that letter return to sender”.

Despite losing more than half of his Scottish MPs, Mr Johnson told activists in his victory speech at Conservative HQ that the party “genuinely speaks for every part of the country”.

Ms Sturgeon said that the Tories, who focused their election campaign in Scotland on their opposition to a second independence vote, had suffered a “crushing defeat in Scotland”. The “stunning” result for the SNP “renews, reinforces and strengthens” the mandate for a new referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon celebrates with her fellow MPs. Picture: Getty Images

In a telephone call after the election, Mr Johnson told Ms Sturgeon that the result in 2014, when Scots backed staying in the UK by 55-45 per cent, was “decisive and should be respected”. He said that he stood with the “majority of people in Scotland who do not want to return to division and uncertainty”, a No.10 spokesman said.

Ms Sturgeon said that she made clear that the SNP’s “mandate to give the people a choice must be respected”.

Sources close to Ms Sturgeon said that the document largely focused on trying to engage the government in a conversation about a referendum by making such a detailed case for holding one that it would demand a response. It will also be used to try to persuade the public of the SNP’s case for another vote. Most polls have put Scotland’s constitutional future on a knife edge.

Pamela Nash, chief executive of the pro-UK campaign group Scotland in Union, said: “This election result is not a mandate for a divisive second independence referendum. Despite the seats won, a majority of people in Scotland voted for pro-UK parties.”

Scotland’s independence bid is back in the limelight after the Scottish National Party crushed its rivals to win 48 of 59 seats. ‘It is time now to decide our own future,” said Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader and first minister of Scotland https://t.co/QILFHk00ea pic.twitter.com/BfbjMMJJvc

— Reuters (@Reuters) December 14, 2019

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ANALYSIS — by Kieran Andrews
The Scottish Nationalists may be opposed to the first-past-the-post system but it served them well this election. Having a virtual monopoly on the pro-independence vote meant they were always likely to win big if they could convince their “yes” supporters, who often feel there is no point in elections, to drag themselves to the polling station.

In 2017 the SNP persuaded 977,569 voters to back them. On Thursday they added 264,811. Along with that came an additional 12 MPs, plus an independent candidate who lost central office support after he was found to have shared anti-Semitic material online.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, again increased her dominance of the political landscape north of the border.

Get ready, Britain!
The Scottish National Party won 48 out of 59 seats in Scotland. pic.twitter.com/XDQNtLaYel

— Joshua Krasna (@JoshuaKrasna) December 13, 2019

Even in North East Fife, the one seat where the Nationalists lost an MP, Stephen Gethins added almost 5,000 votes to his 2017 total. Unfortunately for him, the constituency voted tactically. The Tory vote collapsed to allow the Liberal Democrats a virtual clear run.

The Scottish Conservatives ran a hard pro-Union campaign, which had served them well under Ruth Davidson, the previous leader. This time it could not win over enough of the crumbling Labour support or compete with the renewed motivation of the SNP’s base.

Why?

Both SNP and Tory sources blame Boris Johnson. A poll of Scotland by YouGov for The Times last month, found that 70 per cent of Scots did not trust the prime minister.

Mr Johnson was described as “utterly toxic” on the doorstep. It was no surprise that he was kept away from the Scottish campaign, save for two brief appearances at a safe distance from the public.

This puts the future of the Union back on the table. Ms Sturgeon has started a renewed push for a second independence referendum.

Mr Johnson insists that he will reject her demands. How the Scots react to an unpopular prime minister simply saying “no” will be key to how united the Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland remains.

THE TIMES