Tories trailing Labour with lowest backing since election

Conservative party support has fallen to its lowest level since the December 2019 election.

Boris Johnson in full flight in the House of Commons this week. Picture: AFP

Tory support has fallen to its lowest level since the election after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s gamble to raise taxes for the National Health Service and social care reform, a Times poll reveals on Friday.

Backing for the Conservatives is down five percentage points to 33 per cent after the government announced plans to increase national insurance. The poll puts Labour in the lead, at 35 per cent, for the first time since January at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The YouGov poll also suggests the policy has, at least for now, undermined the Conservatives’ reputation as a party of low taxation without giving them the credit for increased investment in the NHS and social care. Six in 10 voters did not think Mr Johnson or his party cared about keeping taxes low compared with about two in 10 who thought he did care. Just under a quarter of all Tory voters believe the party now supports low taxation.

Less than a third of voters think Mr Johnson and the Conservatives care about improving the NHS compared with more than half who do not, despite the fact the health service will receive the bulk of the £36bn ($68bn) raised by the tax over the next three years. Only 1 per cent of voters – including the over-65s – believe the plans to fund an overhaul of social care will leave them better off.

Anthony Wells, political research director at YouGov, said: “We should be cautious of leaping to too many conclusions from a single poll but … it looks as if the government may have sacrificed their reputation for low taxes amongst Tory voters without actually getting much credit for helping the NHS.”

The results will alarm Tory MPs before the party conference next month and increase anger among those on the right who spoke out against the plan. The findings will also be met with concern in Downing Street, which carried out extensive polling in the run-up to the decision.

On Tuesday Mr Johnson announced a 1.25 point increase in national insurance – the biggest personal tax rise in two decades – to pay for a £12bn-a-year package for the NHS and social care reform. Ministers hoped that they had limited the fallout from the announcement after just five Tory MPs voted against it in the House of Commons and cabinet ministers largely kept their counsel. Despite private reservations among many in cabinet, only three ministers signalled their opposition earlier this week.

Since the start of the mass vaccine rollout the Tories have regularly enjoyed the backing of over 40 per cent of the electorate and had a lead over Labour of 18 points as recently as May.

The poll also reveals a stark generational divide. Less than half of those under 50 now believe that the taxes they pay fairly reflect the public services they receive compared with 60 per cent of those past retirement age.

The Times