Technology’s hot trends set for lift off

From electric cars and the metaverse to space travel and Web 3, the race is on to be this year’s breakout star in a fast-moving arena.

A Blue Origin New Shepard rocket launches on December 11, 2021, in West Texas near Van Horn. Picture: AFP

Making predictions is a mug’s game, especially in technology.

Who would have thought, for example, that one of the most lucrative jobs in 2021 would have been buying and selling JPEGs? I’m referring here, of course, to the craze around non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, in which rudimentary pixellated “art” pieces traded for tens of millions of dollars.

That said, 2022 is almost upon us. Tectonic plates are shifting and the results will be profound. So forthwith, a smattering of prognostications about the year to come.

Electric cars take off

As you read this, more than 390 makes and models of electric cars are in production – roughly half of them in China, according to research firm E Source.

A dozen electric car start-ups have debuted on the stock market in the past 18 months, raising just short of $US30bn ($41.5bn).

The first Rivian R1T electric pick-up truck rolls off the production line.

The revolution is here. Mass market models from Ford, Hyundai, Nissan and Kia will hit the market. So will luxury saloons from the likes of Lucid, BMW and Mercedes.

But making cars is a tough business. Many of the upstarts have promised the moon but will crash and burn in spectacular fashion.

Some, such as Nikola, have already stumbled badly. Rivian, which raised an astounding $US12bn in a November stock market float, has so far managed to deliver just 650 of its pick-up trucks and SUVs.

More delays are likely. And what of the infrastructure? There are not enough charging stations, and the battery supply chain will come under acute pressure.

Strap in. Revolutions are always messy.

Global tech regulator

Mark Zuckerberg has testified before Congress seven times in the past five years. Yet, aside from passing a 2018 law on child sex trafficking, US legislators have done zero to deliver on their long-promised Big Tech crackdown.

Britain has stepped into the void.

The Age Appropriate Design Code imposed 15 standards to protect children online. In the weeks before it came into force in September, Facebook, Instagram, Google and TikTok all introduced measures to comply, from blocking targeted ads for under-18s to halting messages after 9pm.

These changes were pushed out globally and more are coming.

The UK has a draft Online Safety Bill, which seeks to impose a “duty of care” on social media giants.

Europe’s Digital Services Act, which also threatens huge fines if platforms do not police content effectively, and the Digital Markets Act, which seeks to promote competition, are both expected to pass next year.

Congress will keep grandstanding.

Britain and Brussels, meanwhile, are getting down to business.

Civil war over web

Just over a quarter of a century ago, Marc Andreessen helped launch the internet age when he released Netscape, the browser that brought the web to life.

Now his firm, Andreessen Horowitz, is attempting to launch a second revolution:
Web 3.

Jack Dorsey. Picture: AFP

Marc Andreessen.

Today, half a dozen companies have seized control of our experience online. Web 3 seeks to completely re-engineer how the web works, replacing the all-powerful gatekeepers such as Facebook with decentralised protocols that make it easy for anyone to create and trade digital goods. The core of the movement is cryptocurrencies and blockchain, the public ledger technology on which they are built.

The tech world is splitting into tribes. Half say Web 3 is an overhyped idea that will not deliver. The other half say it will change everything.

Andreessen’s firm is the single biggest Web 3 funder, having raised $US3bn and backed more than 50 companies in this sector. This is interesting not least because he sits on Facebook’s board and has long been one of Zuckerberg’s most important consiglieri.

Jack Dorsey, a bitcoin believer who recently stepped down as chief executive of Twitter, is poised to take a more public and leading role in the Web 3 boom.

He has bashed Andreessen for trying to “own” this next iteration of the web. A clash of the billionaires looms.

Apple jumps into the metaverse

The world’s largest company is reportedly working on two products that would put it right at the heart of the metaverse, the immersive digital world that we used to call virtual reality.

One Apple product is a virtual reality headset that, according to reports, would look like rather sleek ski goggles.

It is also beavering away on augmented reality glasses that would superimpose digital information onto your field of view.

Silicon Valley has been talking about moving past the smartphone for years.

We’re not all going to bin our iPhones this coming year and put on iGlasses instead, but we may well see the look and shape of Apple’s plans for all of us.

Space race hots up

This will be the first year that more private citizens are fired into space than actual astronauts.

SpaceX, Virgin Galactic and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin are all stepping up their space tourism services after a year in which they managed to complete their maiden voyages.

Two brothers who are co-founders of online payments start-up Stripe, John Collison, left, president, and Patrick Collison, chief executive. Picture: Bloomberg

Biggest tech float since Alibaba

Stripe, the 12-year-old start-up founded by Irish brothers Patrick and John Collison, 33 and 31 respectively, will debut in the most anticipated stockmarket listing in years.

The online payments processor was valued at $US95bn when it raised cash from private investors in March.

The deal will vault the brothers, who hail from the tiny village of Dromineer and are already worth $US10bn each, into the upper echelons of the global rich list.

The Sunday Times