Target Moldova: Putin ‘plans invasion’ to open new front

Russia will try to open a new front against Ukraine from Moldova as the war threatens to spill into more territory, military sources say.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Picture: AFP

Russia will try to open a new front against Ukraine from Moldova as the war threatens to spill into more territory, Ukrainian military sources say.

A source outlining Moscow’s expected plan said a “number of indicators” pointed to an attack on Moldova in the near future. A takeover of the country, which has an army of only 3,250 soldiers, would lead to Russian troops moving into Odesa, Ukraine’s Black Sea port, from the west, he said.

“We believe the Kremlin has already taken the decision to attack Moldova,” the insider said. “The fate of Moldova is crucial. If the Russians start to take control, we will … be an easier target.”

Tensions are already rising in Transnistria, a breakaway Moldovan region, after a series of mysterious explosions blamed on terrorists. Transnistria, which borders southwest Ukraine, is under the control of pro-Moscow officials. It was formed in 1990 after the Soviet Union broke up and Moldova took a pro-West stance.

A Ukrainian refugee carries her luggage as she crosses the Ukrainian-Moldovan border into Moldova at the Palanca border crossing, southeastern Moldova. Picture: AFP

Western officials believe Russia’s long-term objectives may be to create a land bridge from Russia, along the coast to Transnistria, cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea.

The military source believes Russia will go further and try to exacerbate tensions in Moldova to take over the country entirely. The claims could not be independently verified. Other western officials believe the Kremlin has not yet given up its ambitions towards Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.

Melinda Simmons, Britain’s returning ambassador to Kyiv, said President Putin was unlikely to have given up on his goal of capturing the city – despite shifting his military focus to the east.

“Politically, I don’t doubt that Putin’s objectives for Ukraine have not changed, even though their tanks had to withdraw back to the north from Kyiv,” she told The Observer. “I can also see that the Kyiv city administration and the Ukraine armed forces are not taking that gain for granted at all. And they’re right.”

A Transnistrian serviceman walks past a line of car queuing to exit the self-proclaimed ‘Moldovan Republic of Transnistria’ at Varnita border point with Moldova last week. Picture: AFP

Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, is not a member of Nato but borders Romania, which is. It is grappling with an influx of refugees and the economic fallout of the war, which has stopped nearly 15 per cent of its exports.

The Ukrainian source said intelligence suggested that Russians were preparing for conflict at the airfield in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria. Western officials believe about 1,500 Russian soldiers are in the country.

The insider said the airfield was planning to accept Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft and possibly helicopters. “That means they are preparing an airborne landing operation and there is a high probability the airborne troops will be delivered from Crimea,” he said.

The mission would have to fly over Ukraine, raising the prospect of troops being shot down by air defence systems.

The Russians are expected to create a “pretext” for intervention in Moldova on or around May 9, the date of Putin’s Victory Parade to celebrate the defeat of the Nazis in the Second World War. The source pointed to possible mass riots in the capital to coincide with a military operation. “It’s very easy to create a pretext in Moldova,” he said.

Supplied Moldova could be next in the sights of Moscow.

A report titled Operation Z by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds at the Royal United Services Institute said the debate within Russia’s Federal Security Bureau (FSB), the main spy agency, was about destabilising Moldova to tie down Ukrainian forces on the southern border. This would counter growing pro-European sentiment in the country and show the West that support for Ukraine risks wider consequences, including in the Balkans.

On April 7, the Moldovan government banned the display of Russian military symbols. The report said Ukrainian intelligence had received reports that Major General Dmitry Milyutin of the FSB was discussing a protest movement in Moldova that would “use the banned symbols” to create a basis “for allegations the government was clamping down on free speech”.

In a speech on April 22, Russia’s Major General Rustam Minnekaev said control of southern Ukraine would provide “another way out to Transnistria” where Russian-speaking people were being “oppressed”.

The Times