Sunak battling to weather the political storm
With an ever-gloomier forecast, insiders say the prime minister is miserable — and rumours are swirling about where he might find a sunny escape after No 10.
Rishi Sunak twice tried to take his mind off his political predicament last week by returning to one of his greatest loves growing up: cricket. On Wednesday evening the prime minister went to the Oval ground in south London for a net with his cousin, something he used to do to relax when he was a rising star on the Conservative back benches.
One of those who went reported back that he was “so happy” and an aide said the following morning he was very jolly and energetic. On Friday the prime minister was back at the Oval to announce pounds 35 million of government investment in grassroots cricket. He did not let even being clean bowled by a child dampen his mood.
Sunak’s optimism might have been curtailed somewhat if he had been present at a recent drinks do, organised by a senior member of his cabinet. There, Downing Street aides past and present rubbed shoulders with serving advisers in the minister’s department. A No 10 staffer confided that Sunak’s response to his electoral plight, trailing Labour by 20 points or more, has been quite childlike.
One recounted the moment the prime minister railed against the prospect of leading his party into its worst general election defeat by complaining about voters and his MPs: “Why do people not realise that I’m right?”
A second senior Tory with close links to Downing Street, said: “He’s really miserable and that is infecting everyone else. He feels completely snookered.
“This is like nothing that he’s ever experienced in his life. He’s questioning his own judgment, can’t take a decision, but at the same time doesn’t want to take advice. He’s rude and dismissive to his team for not being good enough. It’s very Gordon Brown: the micromanagement, immersed in details, dithering, blaming others. He and his team have realised they aren’t just going to lose, they are going to get hammered.”
Two credible witnesses say that Sunak’s wife, Akshata Murty, seems unhappy and worried about the effects of the pressure on her husband, but Downing Street angrily dismisses suggestions that he is already considering a life outside parliament.
Sunak did have a successful career in finance before he went into politics, earning millions as an investment fund manager. And in that world, where it is assumed he will soon be needing a job, efforts are under way to find him a role – though No 10 insists that he is not encouraging any such help.
The first clue came from a senior figure in one of America’s leading tech companies, who knows Sunak from California, where the prime minister still has a home in Santa Monica. At the end of last year he told a colleague that it was common knowledge that “people are putting together plans for an AI venture capital fund for Rishi to run when he’s no longer prime minister”.
Sunak is a huge enthusiast for the potential of artificial intelligence but also about the need for the technology to be properly regulated. He made it a centrepiece of his government to set up and host the world’s first summit on the opportunities and risks of AI in November at Bletchley Park, home of the codebreakers.
At the time, people in government joked that the event, where the prime minister publicly interviewed Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of Twitter/X, was “Rishi’s milk round”, an opportunity to meet and schmooze the leading business figures in the field. Some speculated that he might want an international job as an “AI tsar” when he leaves government. Since then, multiple government advisers have referred to “the AI fund” as if it is also common knowledge.
One of those attending the ministerial party said: “There’s a lot of people in No 10 who are frustrated at how much bandwidth and energy and time from him and them have gone into bollocks like his AI strategy. He might be very proud of it but there isn’t a single vote in it.”
Fast-forward to last week when a prominent Conservative with close links to No 10 claimed that Sunak had been seeing business leaders without his aides present. A source in the City also claimed last week that senior figures in one of the world’s leading investment firms had offered to open doors for Sunak to find seed capital should he wish to set up an AI fund.
This is all met with incredulity and anger in Downing Street.
Sunak has told his aides he has no interest in running a venture capital fund after he leaves government and has never discussed an AI fund with anyone.
They question the logic of claims that he would seek money from others when his critics are quick to point out that his wife is worth pounds 700 million. Friends also say that having previously managed other people’s money, he would not want to return to that world. “It was very stressful,” one said. “Why would he want to do that after doing the most stressful job in the country?”
They also pointed out that Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York and owner of the City firm of that name, met Sunak recently in No 10 with a private secretary present – and that no mention was made of AI or his future.
Perhaps the more telling development is that those who gamble most on the outcome of elections, in the private equity markets, have already written him off and are wondering what they can do to help.
Two sources say that in the prime minister’s conversations with aides about the future, he has offered to help people after they leave No 10. “Rishi has said to some of the people around him, ‘Don’t worry, just stick with me. I’ll bankroll you after this. If you want to start a business, I’ll invest in it.’”
He held similar conversations with his close team in the summer of 2022 when it became clear he was going to lose the first leadership contest that year to Liz Truss. “He said he would try to help us,” an aide said. Others are already said to be looking for jobs.
The Downing Street version of events is that Sunak is battling on. “Is every day an easy day in this building?” an ally asked. “No, and particularly not for the PM. Everyone would think that he was completely deluded if he was always in the best and happiest place.”
Sunak’s allies see a conspiracy involving the Tory right to spread the word that the prime minister thinks he is finished. “In the last 24 hours, there have been multiple things where people are trying to stir up the idea that he’s angry and that he wants out early.”
City rumours about an AI fund are blamed on finance companies whose staff have begun working with Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor.
There is a whiff of bunker paranoia in all this. “They see enemies behind rocks,” a rebel said. But that does not mean that Sunak’s team should not be fearful of those out to get him.
The cadre of ministerial special advisers is awash with speculation about the defence secretary, Grant Shapps, who is this week having a drinks do for these “Spads” after their weekly meeting with Downing Street.
There was also speculation yesterday (Saturday) that if Sunak is ousted MPs would seek to install a “unity government” led by Penny Mordaunt. In this scenario, Dame Priti Patel, the former home secretary, would take charge of a tougher approach to immigration. Party chiefs view this as the brainchild of Dougie Smith, a former No 10 adviser and master of the dark arts, who helped bring down Boris Johnson and has now split from Sunak and aligned himself with the rebels.
Just as many MPs regard Patel as the most likely unifier, given that she remained loyal to both Johnson and Truss – still key influencers in Tory circles – and has not publicly rounded on Sunak. They regard her as the right-winger who is more palatable than Suella Braverman, her successor as home secretary, to Tory moderates. “If Boris backs her, she will be the favourite,” an MP said.
Rebel Tory MPs, who have gone relatively quiet over the Easter recess, are planning to resurrect their media plan to undermine the prime minister in the run-up to the local elections on May 2 with a view to triggering a confidence vote afterwards.
It is unclear how the government will respond. Next week’s media grid is almost devoid of announcements. “It feels like the Marie Celeste in that building,” a senior rebel said. “This hasn’t been a bad week for the government but they haven’t managed two [good weeks] in a row since the start of the year. Received wisdom is that the polls will narrow. But there is absolutely no sign of that.”
There was also some incredulity at the way No 10 handled the case of William Wragg, who admitted passing the mobile numbers of colleagues to someone who had compromising images of him, and who then sought to coax others into a honeytrap. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, said Wragg had been courageous to admit his role, which some MPs found bizarre, since Wragg had endangered them.
A senior Tory said: “He’s railed against his colleagues publicly, and briefed against them anonymously, time and time again. It’s a disgrace that he’s an elected representative – it’s not for no reason he’s known as ‘Toe-Wragg’.”
It may be small solace for the prime minister that he is not quite this unpopular with all his colleagues yet. But if things continue like this he is going to need many more games of cricket, and potentially the help of his friends in finance.
The Times
