Suddenly, trickle of protest in Iran becomes a flood

Iranian students demonstrate following a tribute for the victims of Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737 in front of the Amirkabir University in Tehran on Saturday. Picture: AFP

Every so often, one incident can tear chunks from a regime’s ­facade.

Iran’s belated admission that it shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing scores of Iranians only hours after bloated displays of mourning for Qassem Soleimani, has done just that.

Despite scrabbling for three days to hide its part in the disaster, Iran’s leadership has been backed into a corner.

Cynical observers saw Tehran’s hand when news of the crash broke, hours after 16 Iranian missiles were launched at two US bases in Iraq. Saturday morning’s statement unleashed dissent on a scale not seen since 2009.

There has been an almost constant trickle of protest in Iran over the past two years, from the working classes incensed by soaring inflation — partly a result of renewed US sanctions — and from women demonstrating against the compulsory headscarf.

Most of the women were jailed or fled the country, and the regime extinguished the economic protests with brute force, most recently in November.

The plane crash has roused a dissident elite whose privileges had insulated them from the worst of the daily oppressions. The Iranians on board Flight PS752 were part of the global ­middle class, working or studying at universities in North America and Europe. The families and friends they had been visiting in Iran before boarding the flight belong to a sizeable and, until now, silent minority. The PR disaster also appears to have been the final straw for some pro-regime commentators.

There is slim chance that the protests will keep enough momentum to topple Iran’s leaders, who have shown that they are ready to react with violence. ­Despite US President Donald Trump’s statement in support of the protesters, America has little leverage to stop this. A more likely scenario, though still distant, is that factions within the security forces take advantage of the situation to make a bid for power.