Submarines are being built to deter Taiwan invasion
Australia joins allied rush to build enough submarines to deter a forecast invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
The US and its allies including Australia are in a race to build enough submarines to deter China from launching an invasion of Taiwan, which a senior American officer has forecast could happen by 2027.
An expanded submarine fleet lies at the heart of a new defensive strategy being adopted by America’s allies in the Asia-Pacific region as China’s navy, at 335 ships, has overtaken the 293 vessels in the US battle fleet.
Taiwan, the self-governing island that China regards as a renegade province to be reclaimed by force if necessary, has only four old submarines but is building another eight.
Australia will add, eventually, 12 more to the six it already has in service, though the first of the new ones is not expected to enter service until the 2030s.
Japan has a new class of attack submarine and South Korea has embarked on a three-phase submarine building program.
The US is building a fifth tranche of larger Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines at a cost of $US22 billion ($28bn), with the first of the extra nine boats expected in service in the mid-to-late 2020s.
“The PLA [China’s People’s Liberation Army] believes that in order to conduct a successful offensive campaign along the first island chain [in the South and East China seas], especially against Taiwan, it needs to have air and sea control,” Andrew Krepinevich, a China expert and former senior Pentagon official, said.
“Submarines could play an important role in denying the PLA the sea control it believes it needs.”
Admiral Philip Davidson, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, told the US Senate armed service committee in the past week that China might invade Taiwan within the next six years to enforce reunification with the mainland. His comments were condemned by Beijing.
The strait that separates Taiwan from the mainland is about 160km wide and has an average depth of about 230ft (70m), said to be deep enough for effective submarine operations.
Key to the construction program are Taiwan’s new submarines, the first it has built domestically. The first of the new diesel-electric vessels is expected to be in service by 2025. The fleet of eight is likely to cost about $US16bn.
China’s navy is itself engaged in an accelerated construction program in which Beijing will overtake the US in submarine numbers by 2030, with a projected fleet of 76. It is expected to build a new class of guided-missile nuclear-powered attack submarine by the mid-2020s. The Pentagon has also noted that new Chinese surface warships were being fitted with “advanced anti-submarine weapons and sensors”.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned on Friday that Russia would retaliate if an American proposal to place ground-based anti-ballistic missile systems in Japan went ahead.
Tokyo has rejected the plans but US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin will be in Japan in the coming week and the subject is expected to be raised again.
The Times
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