Starmer opens up eight-point lead as Partygate takes toll on Tories

A poll suggests that Boris Johnson would lose not only a general election but even his own seat

Keir Starmer on the floor of the Commons on December 15. Picture: AFP

British Labour has opened up an eight-point lead over the Tories after a punishing few weeks for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a poll commissioned by The Sunday Times reveals.

Nearly 25,000 people were asked about their voting intentions, and the results give the first detailed insight into the public’s perception of Mr Johnson’s handling of the sleaze scandals engulfing his party.

The findings of a constituency-by-constituency poll conducted between December 1 and 21 suggest Labour leader Keir Starmer would win a general election with a 26-seat majority. Mr Johnson would lose his seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, becoming the first sitting prime minister to be ejected from parliament.

Five other cabinet ministers, including Alok Sharma, the COP26 president, and George Eustice, the environment secretary, would also lose their seats, according to the survey by Focaldata.

The poll was taken over a three-week period in which Mr Johnson suffered a damaging backbench rebellion, a by-election defeat in a seat the Tories had held for nearly 200 years, revelations of illicit parties held in Downing Street last Christmas, and a surge in Omicron cases.

While some Conservatives will be shocked by the findings, many will think it could have been much worse and will be surprised Sir Keir has not fared better in “disastrous December”.

Just over two years ago Mr Johnson led the Tories to their biggest election victory since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. But the Conservative coalition he built on the foundations of Brexit appears to be crumbling, with Labour picking up votes in its former heartlands. The Tories won 365 seats with a 43.6 per cent share of the vote, gaining 48 seats, against Labour’s 202 with a 32.1 per cent share, a loss of 60.

The new poll put Labour on 40 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent. It predicted Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237. This would represent the Conservatives’ lowest haul since Michael Howard led the party in the 2005 general election.

The Scottish National Party would remain the dominant party in Scotland, with 48 of the 59 seats, in what will be interpreted as a vote of confidence in First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

The Liberal Democrats, who have celebrated two shock by-election victories this year, first in Chesham & Amersham in June and then in North Shropshire this month, would fail to make further progress against the so-called blue wall, according to the poll. It predicted Ed Davey’s party would win 11 seats, the same as in 2019.

Labour would make its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Mr Johnson to power in 2019. Sir Keir would be expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.

The most recent scandal to hit the Tories came when photographs were released of a gathering in the garden of No 10 at a time when the country was under Covid restrictions.

The PM’s office insisted it was a “work meeting”. Labour was also forecast to surge in London, claiming a further 10 seats from the Conservatives, including Chingford & Woodford Green, which is held by Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, and Kensington.

Labour would experience an urban revival outside the capital as well, taking a further 63 seats that were won by the Conservatives in 2019 and 2017. These seats include those in larger towns such as Reading, Milton Keynes, Northampton, Stevenage and High Wycombe.

The party would also see a revival in its Welsh heartlands, winning 27 of the 40 seats.

The poll was analysed using the MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) technique, a statistical method that produces predictions based on small geographic areas, analysing elements of a person’s lifestyle and background to generate probabilities about voting habits. It is believed to be more accurate than conventional polling.

Justin Ibbett, chief executive of Focaldata, said: “Boris Johnson has overseen a seismic drop in Conservative Party support across all sections of society. It compares to 1997, when Blair took power. The big difference now is that Starmer isn’t seen as a leader-in-waiting.

“But this poll still implies a Conservative wipeout. It confirms the trend we have been seeing in recent opinion polls, with Labour holding a strong vote-intention lead over the Tories. The Conservatives’ standing among the public has been badly hit by the string of damaging revelations over previous weeks.

“Indeed, that Labour performs so well in this MRP poll is more due to Conservative collapse than a resurgent Labour.”

The Sunday Times