Slow postal count ‘will give Trump election night lead’

Donald Trump could appear on course for a substantial victory on election night only for his lead to vanish over the next few days.

Donald Trump addresses the crowd during a campaign rally at Smith Reynolds Airport, North Carolina. Picture: Getty Images

President Donald Trump could appear on course for a substantial victory on election night only for his lead to vanish as postal votes are counted, a leading Democratic data company has warned.

An expected surge in postal votes as a result of the coronavirus crisis has intensified fears among Democrats that a potential victory for their candidate, Joe Biden, might become apparent only days after polls close on November 3.

They believe the delay would allow Mr Trump to step up his allegations that mass postal voting is a recipe for fraud.

A projection run by Hawkfish, a data company set up last year by former Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg found that a “red mirage” in the Republicans’ favour on election night was possible.

“We are saying this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Josh Mendelsohn, chief executive of Hawkfish, told Axios, an American news website. “When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after election day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was … a mirage. It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.”

At the last election, 24 per cent of ballots were cast by post, the Election Assistance Commission said.

An ABC News poll in July found that 38 per cent of voters wanted to vote by post this time. Many parts of the country, which are not used to processing large numbers of postal votes, have had to expand their capabilities.

THE TIMES