Sensational move puts Donald Trump’s third run in peril

The FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago looking for unlawfully removed classified material increases pressure on other investigations into Donald Trump.

The FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago looking for unlawfully removed classified material is a serious escalation of the various investigations into Donald Trump’s final days in the White House, raising the prospect of a politically polarising battle if he is tried, and potentially ending any chance of a third presidential run in 2024.

The raid increases pressure on the other investigations into Trump, including his role in the Capitol Hill insurrection on January 6 last year.

Trump’s reaction to the raid was to blame Democrats seeking to stop him running for president again. Much of the Republican Party have been deeply ambivalent about that prospect but the FBI’s action stoked a sense of outrage that could benefit Trump and ripple into November’s midterm elections.

The January 6 investigation is now concentrating on actions by Trump and his inner circle to prevent the certification of 2020 election results.

Donald Trump supporters gather near his residence at Mar-A-Lago after he tweeted that FBI agents were raiding the property. Picture: AFP.

A separate criminal trial in New York on charges of tax fraud against the Trump Organisation and Allen Weisselberg, its longtime chief financial officer, is due to start this month or next, adding to the cloud hanging over the former president.

The raid represents an almost unprecedented step by the FBI to scrutinise the actions of a former president, requiring them to convince a judge that there was reason to believe evidence of a crime could be found. Such a move would also probably require sign-off from the top of the Justice Department, most probably Merrick Garland himself. The attorney-general faces a tricky balancing act investigating Trump, with Republicans alleging partisan witch-hunts whereas some Democrats criticise his slow approach to Trump’s apparent misdeeds.

Garland told reporters in February that the Justice Department had been notified about the classified material at Mar-a-Lago, adding: “We will do what we always do under these circumstances: look at the facts and the law and take it from there.”

Although he has said little publicly about the inquiries involving Trump, Garland said of the possibility of charging a former president that “no person is above the law in this country.”

News of the reason for the raid on Mar-a-Lago pulled into sharp focus an obscure criminal law – Section 2071 of Title 18 of the United States Code – that a defendant convicted of unlawful custody or destruction of classified material should be disqualified from holding office.

Conviction can lead to a fine or three years in jail but if the defendant holds federal office, they “shall forfeit” that and “be disqualified from holding any office under the United States”.

So were Trump to be convicted of removing, concealing or destroying government records under that law, it would follow he would be barred from standing for the White House.

Republicans flirted with using the code against Hillary Clinton to prevent her from running after she used a private server for government business but it was ultimately argued that the only way someone eligible to be president under the Constitution could be debarred was through impeachment proceedings, not a simple criminal procedure.

Marc Elias, Clinton’s former general counsel, said the idea of Trump fighting a legal battle on his right to stand for office even as he campaigned would be “a blockbuster in American politics”.

A sea of legal troubles

Donald Trump faces several other inquiries and lawsuits, including:

January 6 assault on US Capitol: A congressional panel is working on a case that Trump broke the law to try to overturn his 2020 election defeat. According to a judge, his efforts to persuade Mike Pence, the vice-president, to override the result probably violated federal law and the committee said in a report that Trump was likely to have plotted to defraud the US. A decision on charges will be made by the Merrick Garland, the attorney-general.

Wire fraud: Democrats said in a June hearing of the January 6 committee that Trump raised $250 million from supporters to advance fraudulent claims in court that he won the election, but steered it elsewhere.

Georgia election ‘tampering’: A special grand jury is considering evidence including that Trump asked the Georgia secretary of state to “find” the votes he needed to win the state and the election.

New York criminal court: The Manhattan district attorney has been investigating whether Trump’s family property business lied about asset values to get favourable bank loans and lower tax bills.

New York civil investigation: The New York State attorney-general is studying whether the Trump Organisation inflated real estate values. Trump, his son Donald Jr and daughter Ivanka will testify.

E. Jean Carroll defamation case: The Elle magazine writer sued Trump for defamation in 2019 after the then-president denied her claim that he raped her in the 1990s.

The Times