Security Chief tells of nuclear danger if Russians routed

While some Western officials think Putin is bluffing, Kyiv’s national security council head warns of what might happen if Russia faced ‘catastrophic defeat’ in Ukraine.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened the use of nuclear weapons since invading Ukraine two years ago. Picture: AFP

President Putin could order the use of a tactical nuclear weapon if Russia’s army is routed in Ukraine, the head of Kyiv’s national security council has told The Times.

Oleksandr Lytvynenko’s comments came after G7 leaders warned at a summit in Italy that any use by Russia of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons would be met with “severe consequences”.

Russian officials have made frequent threats to launch nuclear weapons at Ukraine or western countries since Putin invaded in 2022. The frequency of the threats has dulled their impact, however, and some officials in the West have stated that Putin is bluffing in a bid to intimidate Kyiv’s allies. China has also said that any nuclear escalation in the conflict would be unacceptable.

However, when asked if there were any circumstances under which Putin might resort to using tactical nuclear weapons, Lytvynenko said: “We can’t rule out anything if Russia is on the verge of a catastrophic defeat.” Such a defeat, he said, could trigger the collapse of Russian front lines, army desertions and protests in Moscow.

Lytvynenko said there was no likelihood that Putin would seek to deploy nuclear weapons while Russia has the upper hand in the war.

Tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield or for limited strikes and have a much lower yield than strategic nuclear weapons, which can flatten cities. No nuclear weapon has been detonated in a conflict since 1945.

Lytvynenko said it was doubtful that Putin would use strategic nuclear weapons, a move that would almost certainly trigger a third world war. “He wants to live,” Lytvynenko said. He argued that a Russian defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine would not automatically result in the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow because Putin could try to convince his people that such a reversal was in fact “a victory”.

Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine Oleksandr Lytvynenko. Picture: AFP

This is not as implausible as it may sound, given that the Kremlin has total control over national television. Putin’s security services have launched an unprecedented crackdown on dissent since he ordered tanks into Ukraine more than two years ago.

Oleksandra Ustinova, an opposition MP who heads Ukraine’s parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, responded with scepticism to Lytvynenko’s comments. “Putin is crazy but even so, he understands that there are some things that you can do and some things you can’t do,” she said.

The former head of Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service, Lytvynenko was appointed as head of the national security council in March. He studied cryptology at the KGB academy in Moscow from 1989 to 1994 and has experience of working at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London.

A two-day global peace summit in Switzerland at the weekend was attended by delegates from more than 90 countries. No Russian or Chinese officials were at the summit, which was the initiative of President Zelensky. The United States was represented by Kamala Harris, the vice-president.

I thank all participants of the first Peace Summit for taking the first steps towards peace together. pic.twitter.com/9WFIhjKKF4

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 16, 2024

Despite diplomatic efforts, the prospect of peace appears remote. A draft of the final declaration that was seen by Reuters called for Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected. But it did not specify how the war could be ended or when talks with Moscow might begin. It did, however, condemn Russian nuclear threats.

Zelensky has ruled out holding direct talks with Putin and has said there can be no negotiations over the future of Ukrainian territory that Moscow claims as its own. Russia has said that it no longer recognises Zelensky as the legitimate leader of Ukraine.

The summit came after Putin said on Friday that Russia would implement a ceasefire in Ukraine if Kyiv agreed to surrender four Ukrainian regions in the south and east of the country, as well as Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.

Putin also demanded the scrapping of all western sanctions against Russia and for Ukraine to give up its ambitions to join Nato. The ultimatum, essentially demanding Ukraine’s total capitulation, was immediately rejected by Kyiv and its western allies.

Russia recently carried out drills on the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the south of the country, close to areas of Ukraine that are under the control of its forces, as well as in the northwest. Putin said he ordered the exercises as a response to tensions with the West over its support for Ukraine.

Zelensky said last month that Putin and his inner circle were unlikely to sanction the use of nuclear weapons because the resulting domestic and international backlash would threaten their wealth and power. However, he warned that Putin and his henchmen were so psychologically unstable that he could not exclude the possibility that Moscow might unleash its nuclear arsenal. “These people are sick in the head, that’s a fact. Therefore it’s impossible to say for sure whether they are capable of this or not,” Zelensky said, according to Ukrainian media.

The US began “preparing rigorously” for a Russian strike on Ukraine with a tactical nuclear weapon in late 2022, CNN reported in March, citing White House officials. Fears grew that Putin could order an attack as Kyiv’s forces pushed the Russian army out of Kherson in southern Ukraine. “The risk level seemed to be going up, beyond where it had been at any other point in time,” an unnamed US official said.

Nato has said that it has seen no indications that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons. However, tactical warheads can be transported quietly and fired from conventional weapons systems that Moscow has already deployed to Ukraine, meaning Russian launch preparations would be harder to spot even with advanced satellite technology.

A lengthy delay in deliveries of American weapons to Ukraine following a row in the US Congress allowed Russia to achieve its biggest advances on the battlefield since the start of the war. However, renewed supplies have allowed Ukraine to push back and the situation in the eastern Kharkiv region is now “fully stabilised”, Lytvynenko added.

Ukraine has also begun using western weapons to strike at Putin’s forces inside Russia. Although Britain has not imposed restrictions on the use of its weapons, Washington has said that Ukraine must only use its missiles to defend the embattled Kharkiv region.

The Times