Sabre rattling from Vladimir Putin or a shot across the bows?

The Russian leader promised the use of weapons of mass destruction if he perceived a threat. But experts disagree about how far he might go.

Ballistic missile launchers on Red Square for the 2022 Victory Day parade. Picture: AFP)

President Vladimir Putin has raised the spectre of nuclear strikes against the West by promising to retaliate if he were to perceive an encroachment on Russian territory.

For many, this rhetoric feels at once alarming and deeply familiar. Should it disquiet Europe and the US?

Observers of the Russian scene have long played Putin bingo. Over two and a half decades his yearly press conference, telephone and video phone-ins with the people and his annual address to MPs have swerved towards familiar fare. Bingo card favourites are the moral degradation of the West, the rapid technological advancement of Russian weapons, the splochennost (unity) of the Russian nation and the need to boost the fertility rate.

All were present in this latest speech. His language on military retaliation, however, was especially pointed. Putin accused the West of selecting targets for strikes on Russian territory and preparing to send NATO troops into Ukraine. He also warned against any advance into Russia - and bear in mind that Moscow considers the parts of Ukraine it has seized as integral regions of the Russian Federation.

Rattling his sabre is nothing new. On the first day of his invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022, Putin declared: “Whoever tries to hinder us ... should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history.”

But Thursday’s comments came amid outrage in Moscow about the presence of western operatives in Ukraine. A senior European defence official told the Financial Times this week that special forces from western countries are on the ground in Ukraine, while The New York Times reported that the CIA is financing and partly equipping “spy bunkers” to track Russian troop movements and provide intelligence for targeted missile strikes.

That came as President Emmanuel Macron of France said that he could not exclude sending troops to Ukraine because Russia was “striving to take on further territory”.

What Russia’s red line regarding NATO involvement in Ukraine is, and how far it might go in response to perceived threats, is hard to calibrate. Classified Russian military files leaked this week showed that Moscow has a far lower threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons than Russian officials have ever admitted publicly. Putin has said they could be deployed if Russia faced an existential threat but the files suggested they could be used to achieve an array of more offensive goals, such “stopping aggression” or preventing Russian forces from losing battles or territory.

Some analysts say Putin’s remarks were puff before the presidential election this month. Others warn that he is not a rational actor and may lash out unexpectedly. That so few analysts predicted Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, despite the signs, is a stark reminder: underestimate him at your peril.

THE TIMES