Russia grinds out more gains with ‘tolerance for casualties’

More than 700,000 Russian personnel have been killed or injured in the Ukraine invasion, while 3500 tanks have been lost with 7500 armoured vehicles. But despite the losses, the Russians keep coming.

Gunners from 43rd Separate Mechanised Brigade of Ukraine fire at Russian position with a 155 mm self-propelled howitzer in the Kharkiv region last April. Picture: Anatolii Stepanov / AFP

The briefing from the UK’s Defence Intelligence was typically understated. “Russian territorial advances in Ukraine have accelerated through 2024,” it said.

“This has been underpinned by the Russian leadership’s tolerance for casualties, and Russia’s land forces’ quantitative overmatch relative to the Ukrainian armed forces. The frontline is now less stable than at any point since the opening stages of the conflict.”

Translated into layman’s terms, Russia is making significant gains and Ukraine is in a weaker position than it has been at any point since the start of the war. The Russian “meat-grinder” – or as officials at the British government agency put it, its “tolerance for casualties” – is having an effect.

More than 700,000 Russian personnel have been killed or injured, while 3500 tanks have been lost with 7500 armoured vehicles. But despite the losses, the Russians keep coming.

Data released by the Institute for the Study of War shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory this year as it did last year and is advancing towards key logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.

The decision by the West to step up support has been driven by the brutal reality of what is happening on the frontline. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been pushing the US to lift its veto on allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia since he entered No.10.

The US lifted that veto at the weekend after North Korea’s decision to join the conflict. Within days Ukraine had used US-supplied and British-supplied long-range missiles on targets in the Kursk border region as it attempts to hold on to the territory it gained this year.

However, the Ukrainian gains in Kursk are likely to become a key bargaining chip in any negotiations once Donald Trump takes office, especially given the steady erosion of Russian territory in the east.

“They (the US) will be looking at the data from the behind the scenes and know that this looks grim for them,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the think tank Rusi.

The Storm Shadow missiles will not change the course of the conflict.

“We’re not talking about collapse, but there is the risk of imminent withdrawal and losing even more territory. In the past month the rate of Russian progress has accelerated. The Ukrainians are exhausted. They can’t pull units off the line, they are physically tired and mentally fatigued. There is no respite.”

The decision on Thursday by the US to supply Ukraine with antipersonnel mines represents an attempt to help Kyiv hold the line before Trump’s presidency. Much will depend on the weather this winter. Savill said that Ukraine would be hoping for a relatively mild winter because muddy conditions would stymie the progress of Russian forces. If it is too cold, the ground will freeze, making advances by Russia more straightforward.

Even if Trump is successful in brokering ceasefire talks, there is no guarantee that Russia or Ukraine will co-operate. If anything, Russia’s interest is in dragging out the conflict so it can grind out more gains.

“They (Russia) have shown a high degree of willingness to take pain,” Savill said.

“Putin is willing to take gambles. He is on a winning streak and he is building up his pot. Why would he cash his chips now? Ukraine is in a weaker position than at any point in the conflict. Russia is making gains and accumulating advantages in a number of places. It’s pressure everywhere.”

The Times