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Republicans know Donald Trump would doom them in 2024. But who will tell the President?

Privately, plenty of Republican powerbrokers would like Trump to disappear quietly, but his mastery of the bully pulpit has turned their spines to jelly.

Donald Trump and wife Melania at Valdosta Regional Airport in Valdosta, Georgia, on Sunday (AEDT). Picture: AFP
Donald Trump and wife Melania at Valdosta Regional Airport in Valdosta, Georgia, on Sunday (AEDT). Picture: AFP

Donald Trump’s first post-election rally was intended to be a show of support for the two Republican senators battling to retain their seats in Georgia. As his US presidency draws to a close, it was equally designed to bolster his faltering power over a Republican Party that fears being held hostage to his grandiose scheming.

Ostensibly, the President and his party are in the fight together. Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler face a run-off on January 5 that will determine whether the Senate stays in Republican hands by 52 seats to 48. If they both lose to Democratic challengers, the casting vote in a 50-50 Senate will go to Kamala Harris, the vice-president-elect, giving Joe Biden the power as president to reverse Trump’s legacy — and press ahead with his own agenda.

Yet Trump’s visit on Sunday (AEDT) to the city of Valdosta in south Georgia was also about proving his ability to defy electoral reality with allegations of fraud, rally his loyal fan base and secure his own future as the pre-eminent White House candidate in 2024.

“The party establishment doesn’t want him to run again, but his supporters do,” says a veteran Republican consultant. “They’re everywhere. He has mobilised millions of diehard supporters.”

Privately, plenty of Republican powerbrokers would like Trump to pipe down and disappear quietly, but who is going to be the one to tell him? His mastery of the bully pulpit has so far turned their spines to jelly.

Trump supporters in Valdosta, Georgia, on Sunday. Picture: AFP
Trump supporters in Valdosta, Georgia, on Sunday. Picture: AFP

A former senior White House official with close ties to Trump says leading Republicans with presidential ambitions of their own are in a particularly awkward bind: “How do you send a message that Trump can’t win? That’s a delicate balancing act.”

Trump teased guests at a White House Christmas party last week that he would soon be back in the game. “It’s been an amazing four years. We’re trying to do another four years,” he said. “Otherwise, I’ll see you in 2024.”

He has raised a war chest of $US208m ($280m) to pursue claims he was robbed of victory, but 75 per cent of the donations are going to a political action committee that can be used for future campaigns. The word is Trump will try to upstage Biden by confirming his intention to run on inauguration day, January 20.

Some members of Trump’s divided inner circle believe his troubled business empire will require too much of his focus to have another shot at the presidency. “I disagree, because the money he has made is about his ego,” says the former White House official. “The one thing everybody can agree on is Trump loves uncertainty and he will leave office either saying he will run again or leave it ambiguous.”

Georgia Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler on Sunday. Picture: AFP
Georgia Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler on Sunday. Picture: AFP

The glaring fact from the vantage point of potential rivals is that he lost the election to a laughably weak candidate. Never mind that Trump’s tally of 74 million votes was the second largest of any presidential candidate in history — “Sleepy Joe” won seven million more, racking up a record-breaking 81 million votes from his basement without breaking sweat.

The short word for a candidate who repels more voters than he attracts is “loser”. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump failed to reach 47 per cent of the popular vote. So why would Republicans risk another defeat by giving him a third shot at the presidency? If they can get away with it, they would prefer to dump Trump and escape his clutches.

Josh Hawley. Picture: AFP
Josh Hawley. Picture: AFP
Nikki Haley. Picture: AFP
Nikki Haley. Picture: AFP

A chorus of leading presidential contenders — from senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott to Josh Hawley — have felt obliged to offer Trump encouragement, for now. “If he runs, I think he would clearly be the favourite. I think he’d win,” Rubio tactfully said last week.

Yet nobody has promised Trump a free run. There are plenty more ambitious politicians who fancy their chances, such as former UN ambassador Nikki Haley; US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; Florida Governor Ron DeSantis; and senators Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Tim Scott. Several of them have scheduled visits to Georgia.

“In a primary, they are all likely to run. They won’t let Trump have a clear field. That’s never going to happen. Nikki Haley is 100 per cent certain. That deal is done,” says the former White House official. “They will try to convey the idea that: ‘I can give you the same policies as Trump, without the embarrassment or the risk of losing.’”

Unfortunately, they will also want Trump’s support as kingmaker. The conservative writer Jonah Goldberg compared their dilemma last week to “belling the cat” in Aesop’s fable: “It’s in the collective interest of all the mice to put a bell on the cat, but it is not in the self-interest of any individual mouse to be the one to do it.”

Yet there are hints that Trump’s hold on the Grand Old Party is slipping. Republican governors have been defying his wishes, including Arizona’s Doug Ducey, who refused to answer his phone while certifying the state’s vote in Biden’s favour last week, even though its Hail to the Chief ringtone signified the president was on the line.

Rows in Georgia have turned ugly. Trump declared recently he was “ashamed” to have supported the “hapless” Brian Kemp after the Republican governor certified Biden’s wafer-thin 13,000-vote majority. Trump has also called Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state, who is in charge of elections there, an “enemy of the people”.

Gabriel Sterling, another Georgia election official, last week warned Trump that his inflammatory rhetoric about cheating had consequences.

“Somebody is going to get hurt. Someone is going to get shot. Someone is going to get killed. And it’s not right,” said Sterling, who urged the President’s Republican enablers to speak out.

He added: “This is the backbone of democracy and all of you who have not said a damn word are complicit in this. It’s too much.”

His charge was delivered with great moral force — and was met by silence. That nobody spoke up for the President was as significant as the lack of support for Stirling. In Trumpworld, less than wholehearted support is close to treachery. As such, there are signs of brewing resentment towards him.

Ron DeSantis. Picture: AFP
Ron DeSantis. Picture: AFP
Mike Pompeo. Picture: AFP
Mike Pompeo. Picture: AFP

Vice-President Mike Pence quietly adopted a COVID-19 mask to tout the good news about a vaccine while Trump has unleashed further wild charges of fraud, including a 46-minute rant from the presidential podium on Facebook last week. A senior administration official told the Daily Beast: “The Vice-President doesn’t want to go down with this ship ... and believes much of the legal work has been unhelpful.”

Pence’s reputation for dogged fidelity towards Trump has put him in a difficult position as a challenger in 2024. A recent poll on the succession by Republican pollsters McLaughlin & Associates put Pence and Donald Trump Jr in the lead on 20 points each.

If Trump stands, Pence is stymied. “I feel sorry for him, but his whole selling point was loyalty to the president. Mike’s in the inner circle, but it is highly unlikely Trump will pick him again for vice-president in 2024,” said my former White House source.

As in the past, the volatile Trump is turning former political friends into enemies. The latest to feel the heat is Attorney-general William Barr, who last week repudiated Trump’s claims of widespread voter fraud. Barr “hasn’t done anything”, Trump groused, while toying with the idea of firing him.

The Sunday Times

Read related topics:Donald TrumpJoe Biden

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/republicans-know-trump-would-doom-them-in-2024-but-who-will-tell-the-president/news-story/67902d383f555051843530453452b48e