Republican ‘red wave’ swamps swing states

Republicans are now forecast to win a majority of more than 20 seats in the House of Representatives on November 8.

Joe and Jill Biden plant a tree with grounds superintendent Dale Haney to celebrate his 50 years working at the White House. Picture: AFP

Republicans appear to be back on track for a “red wave” US election victory next month as the economy and cost of living dominates voters’ minds.

Democrat fortunes rose in opinion polls after the Supreme Court ended the 49-year guarantee of access to abortion in June, but its impact on voting intention is fading as prices and interest rates continue to rise.

Republicans are now forecast to win a majority of more than 20 seats in the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections on November 8, while the odds on winning back the evenly divided Senate are also creeping up.

“We have got to focus on the struggles of working people to put food on their table,” warned Bernie Sanders, 81, the veteran independent senator for Vermont who has fought for the Democratic presidential nomination.

“I am worried about the level of voter turnout among young people and working people who will be voting Democratic,” he told CNN ahead of a round of ­rallies he plans to hold for left-wing candidates in swing districts. “And I think, again, what Democrats have got to do is contrast their economic plan with the ­Republicans … what do they want to do, other than complain?”

A “wave” election describes a dramatic swing of the pendulum such as the shifts seen in the first midterms faced by Barack Obama in 2010, when Republicans gained 63 House seats, and by Donald Trump in 2018, when Democrats gained 41 of the 435 seats.

The clearest sign of improving Republican fortunes is polling on the generic vote for congress – asking voters which party they want to control the legislature. Democrats took the lead in mid-August but started to fall behind at the end of September. Republicans now have their biggest lead since the Supreme Court abortion ruling – 47.8 per cent to 44.8 per cent in the RealClearPolitics average of all polls. “Polling, spending trends and conversations with leading Democratic and Republican strategists suggest it is now very possible House Republicans win back the majority on November 8 with more than 20 House seats – once the upper range of most analysts’ projections,” stated the political website Axios.

“Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers. In the Senate, Republican officials are now bullish they will gain at least the one seat necessary to regain the majority.”

President Joe Biden is still campaigning on the economy and abortion, promising to codify a federal right to abortion in a speech last week. “There is worry in Democratic circles that abortion-centric messaging is keeping candidates from talking about the economy,” Axios added. A poll by Monmouth University found 63 per cent of voters wanted Mr Biden to give more attention to “issues important to your family”.

The number of voters rating inflation as “extremely important” increased from 37 per cent in September to 46 per cent. The next most important issues were elections and voting (up from 37 to 38 per cent), crime (34 to 37 per cent) and immigration (30 to 34 per cent). “America remains divided, but the fundamentals and issue environment gives a small but consequential edge to Republicans,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. The non-partisan Cook Political Report identified 22 Democrat seats as “toss-ups” and nine that were “lean” or “likely” Republican. Its editor David Wasserman said many of the 15 Democrats in “lean Democratic” seats were “teetering on the edge”.

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