For me, the most striking political fact of recent weeks came from a study, published in Science, of the stories most viewed by Americans on social media. It found that the top item from the 2020 presidential election, viewed an extraordinary 113 million times on Facebook, was about nine ballots found in a trash can in Pennsylvania.
While that was true, the story was spun in ways that were misleading: that the votes were all for Donald Trump, which they were not, and that it was proof of rigging by the Democrats, whereas it turned out to be an error by a contractor that was spotted by officials.
Without ever seeing this story presented in a balanced way, tens of millions of people probably found confirmation in it for their views – that Trump is the victim of a conspiracy and that whatever he did, the other side is at least as bad. It is a lesson in the damage done in the outraged chambers of social media, particularly by stories that straddle the boundary between fake and true. But it also makes it easier for us to understand why Trump could again become president of the US, after the next election only 13 months away.
For British people, it is unthinkable that anyone indicted in relation to fraud, conspiracy, taking classified documents, paying hush money and attempting to overturn a legitimate election could ever be a serious candidate again. But to Americans – living in two separate worlds of their own newsfeeds, bitterly divided by race, wokeness, abortion and many other issues, using a system of primary elections in which name recognition is a huge advantage – it has become thinkable. Indeed, it is on the verge of becoming probable.
The time has come to prepare for Trump. Surely not, I can hear you exclaim. We will know on November 5, 2024, or soon after, if Trump is back in the White House. Can’t we just wait and hope for the best? I’m afraid not, if you are in a government or a major company, for three reasons.
The first is obvious: this is a 50/50 chance of a very disruptive event. In his first term, Trump was a bull in a china shop, but his handlers often restrained him. But this time, the bull will choose its own handlers for their subservience and knows where all the most expensive china is hidden. Far more of the fragile crockery of American institutions and the western alliance would end up in fragments on the floor.
Would he appoint spineless pacemen to the FBI, the Justice Department and the vice-presidency? Yes. Would he stop financial or military aid to Ukraine? Possibly. Or resume his naive fondness for dictators? Presumably. Or disengage from NATO? We can’t know, but senior advisers from his previous term believe he probably would. Would he reverse America’s climate policies? Definitely. A selection of these items alone would add up to the biggest geopolitical upheaval since the end of the Cold War.
The second reason is that Trump gives voice to a trend in the Republican Party that will outlive him, and eventually come to power. One rival, Ron DeSantis, has referred to the Ukraine war as a “territorial dispute”, showing a lack of understanding of the difference between good and evil that would have Ronald Reagan turning in his grave. There is a radical isolationism growing on the American right that western allies should discourage but also need to anticipate.
A third and more urgent reason is that others are preparing now for Trump, and they have to be countered. For Putin, it means he can play for time in a long war, hoping that the western unity that has so surprised him will fall apart. His trolls and bots can spread the message to Europeans that they will be betrayed and send new waves of social media posts to encourage Americans to hate their own compatriots more than ever.
Seen from Beijing, all that is needed for military coercion and political persuasion to isolate Taiwan decisively is one period, however brief, of uncertainty and erratic signals from the White House. Autocrats the world over will now be preparing their strategies with Trump in mind, and in some cases helping to get him into power.
So, what can we do to prepare? While there will never be a substitute for the power of the US, and we should avoid any action that separates us from America, a list of preparations might include: stepping up by several gears the western blocking of divisive social media material designed to weaken democracy; increasing still further the military and budgetary support for Ukraine from the UK and Europe; credible plans from all NATO countries, including France and Germany, to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence; a coherent western strategy for stability across north Africa, involving the US but able to function without it; closer defence technology ties with South Korea and Japan; improved foreign policy co-operation between the UK and the EU; carbon border taxes ready for launch if the US abandons its net zero commitments; agreement of reforms of the World Bank to help developing countries; and still greater urgency behind efforts to agree international norms, with US commitment, on the governance and control of artificial intelligence.
Almost all of those policies are needed anyway. But if dictators are preparing for Trump by playing it long and sowing discord, free nations need to speed up and reinforce their unity, as well as fortify their resilience in the event of shocks. While we must persuade Americans that they need us, we also have to show them we can do more for ourselves. The rest is up to them, and in particular for them to spare the world the trauma and chaos of a second Trump term.
It is an irony that Joe Biden, who was key to unseating Trump in 2020, can probably best help by standing aside in 2024. For all his faults – expensive subsidies, a debacle in Afghanistan, an excess of caution on arming Ukraine – he has reinvigorated the western alliance and restored faith in American institutions. But US voters overwhelmingly say in surveys that they are concerned about his age and do not want a Trump-Biden rematch. There are still enough Americans who are not living in a world of conspiracies touted on Facebook for good leaders to emerge. But they need a choice of fresh leadership from talented state governors on both sides.
Failing that, the return of Trump has become a serious possibility. It is not a distant problem, because it is already having an effect. It is not a one-off issue, because it represents a trend. We cannot leave it just to the bad guys to prepare for it.
The Times
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