One in four Americans fear civil war after the presidential election

Fears that violence is very or somewhat likely to break out after the presidential election are shared by 27 per cent of American adults across the political divide.

Trump supporters battle with police and security forces as they storm the US Capitol building in Washington, DC. Picture: AFP.

More than a quarter of Americans believe civil war could break out after the presidential election, polling for The Times has found.

Fears that violence is very or somewhat likely are shared by 27 per cent of American adults across the political divide, including 30 per cent of women and 24 per cent of men.

A YouGov survey of 1266 registered voters last week from Friday to Monday found that 12 per cent of respondents said they knew someone who might take up arms if they thought Donald Trump was cheated of victory at the election in less than two weeks.

Another 5 per cent said they knew someone who might do the same if they believed Kamala Harris was cheated.

The YouGov poll found 84 per cent of voters believed the country was more divided than 10 years ago; 5 per cent thought it was less divided.

Discussion about the potential for conflict followed the behaviour of Trump supporters on January 6, 2021, when hundreds stormed the Capitol to delay the formal ratification of President Joe Biden’s victory.

Barbara Walter, a professor of international affairs at California University, wrote in her 2022 book How Civil Wars Start, that “the US ... has entered very dangerous territory”.

She added that the country was “closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe” because of political extremism, cultural tribalism, the embrace of conspiracy theories, proliferation of guns and militias and the erosion of faith in government and democracy.

The YouGov survey found that voters thought this election was “very likely” (6 per cent) or “somewhat likely” (21 per cent) to cause a second civil war.

In contrast, 32 per cent said it was “not very likely” and 20 per cent that it was “not at all likely” while 19 per cent were “not sure”. Those who thought a civil war was somewhat likely were roughly equal between supporters of Ms Harris (28 per cent) and Mr Trump (27 per cent).

Carl Bialik, YouGov’s US politics editor and vice-president of data science, said the result was “surprising”. He added: “It might be reflecting an awareness of how close the election is.”

Mr Trump refused to accept his defeat in the 2020 election, falsely maintaining that he was cheated by fraud.

Polls have found that up to a third of Americans believe Mr Biden won by fraud, including about two-thirds of Republicans.

The Times