Oligarchs live in terror of tsar and his torture cells
As his war destroys lives in Ukraine and Russia’s economy reels, are there signs ordinary people or the elite may be ready to turn against Putin?
As Vladimir Putin’s war machine destroys lives in Ukraine and sanctions plunge the Russian economy into a tailspin, opponents are seeking signs that ordinary people or the elite may be ready to turn against the president.
Some Russians, including those with much to lose, have spoken out. There have been anti-war protests across Russia every evening since Putin launched his invasion last week, with around 6000 arrests.
Yet analysts say that signs of dissent are unlikely to concern the Kremlin. The protests are not huge and there is almost no chance of Putin’s inner circle – military, security and spy service chiefs who have known the president for decades – plotting to remove him.
Russia’s estimated 116 billionaires have lost more than $126 billion since parliament appealed to Putin to recognise two Kremlin-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine on February 16, Forbes reported. Yet despite haemorrhaging money, the business elite is likewise is no position to challenge Putin.
“The elite is in absolute shock. It wasn’t in any of their plans for their businesses to go down the drain and for them to end up as potential defendants at The Hague [International Criminal Court],” said Abbas Gallyamov, a speechwriter-turned political analyst.
“But it would be wrong to expect any moves from them. The elite have always been afraid of Putin but now they are even more afraid of him. If he was ready to bomb Kyiv, he could imprison them – and not only that. They all know about the torture cells. There are no heroes left.”
Oleg Deripaska, Mikhail Fridman, and Oleg Tinkov, three Russian billionaires, have called for an end to the conflict. Fridman, a founder of Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest private bank, told staff that “war can never be the answer” while Deripaska, a metals tycoon, also called for peace.
Tinkov, the founder of the Tinkoff bank, said: “Innocent people are dying in Ukraine, every day, this is unthinkable and unacceptable!”
The head of a Russian delegation to a United Nations climate conference in Paris apologised for the invasion. Oleg Anisimov told fellow delegates on Sunday that he failed to see “any justification for the attack on Ukraine”.
More than a million people have signed a petition against the war, while celebrities, journalists and teachers have expressed outrage at the campaign in Ukraine, a country where many Russians have friends or family. “Life is so fragile and priceless, it’s a gift from God, and no one has the right to take it away,” said Innesa Rakhmanova, an artist who was arrested at a protest in Moscow on Sunday.
For the billionaires, speaking out against Putin may be a last-gasp effort to ensure they can maintain their assets in the West, including luxury yachts and property. Many of their children study or live in American or Europe.
“Russia’s biggest oligarchs have perfectly understood that they will have to distance themselves explicitly from Putin’s war ventures if they want to ever have a future in the West or redeem themselves,” said Elisabeth Schimpfossl, the author of the book Rich Russians. “They are desperate for things to be reversed as much as possible.”
The war came as a shock not only to the business elite but also to political analysts whose job it is to advise the government. Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is close to the foreign ministry, said he had advised Moscow against an invasion to force NATO to retreat from Russia’s borders. “I didn’t believe this war was possible,” he said. “But they decided that a military operation was an unpleasant but the most appropriate form of reaction.”
It is hard not to get the sense in Moscow that the country is again retreating behind an iron curtain. Amid tit-for-tat airline bans, even travelling to Moscow is a logistical nightmare. Aside from restrictions imposed during the pandemic, Russia has not been so cut off from the West since the Soviet era.
As hostilities escalate, the United States yesterday advised its citizens to leave Russia. Moscow has also restricted Facebook and Twitter, exacerbating the sense of deepening of isolation. “It’s probably time to make plans to leave,” said one protester, who asked not to be identified. “How can we bring our children up here now?”
Despite the protests, there is also support for the war. “If we hadn’t attacked, Ukraine would have dropped nuclear bombs on us,” said Tamara, a pensioner, echoing state media propaganda.
Kremlin-run television stations have not shown footage of Russian missiles falling on Ukrainian cities. They also insist there have been no civilian casualties.
Gallyamov said Putin would be in danger only if the elite sensed he had lost the support of the security services and large protests erupted.
“If they feel he has weakened enough, they will betray him, if they think they can do this safely. Without doubt. They are no longer loyal. But this is extremely unlikely to happen in the next few years.”
The Times
More Coverage
Hezbollah ‘not a spent force yet’
The Iran-backed militia are maintaining a strong public image in Lebanon but experts believe its ‘intimidation factor is gone’.
Ukraine: the art of the peace deal
This fight is complicated: neither money, nor munitions, nor sanctions are likely to be enough to settle the conflict in Ukraine’s favour.