Old age adds to Tories’ woes as UK voters die off

One in six Conservative voters are likely to die before the next election, according to analysis that highlights the party’s challenge in appealing to younger people.

A Conservative Party campaigner stands at the entrance of a polling station in London during last month’s election. Picture: AFP

One in six Conservative voters are likely to die before the next election, according to analysis that highlights the party’s challenge in appealing to younger people as it prepares to choose a new leader.

Labour’s younger voter base means that only one in 19 people who voted for the party this month are not likely to be alive to cast a ballot in 2029, in a demographic swing that could add dozens of seats to Keir Starmer’s majority.  More than a million Tory votes are likely to be lost by 2029 purely as a result of population change, while Labour adds nearly 300,000 as younger people, who are more likely to back the party, become eligible to vote.

Senior Tories are concerned about how to appeal to younger voters after a defeat in which they became even more dependent on older people. Not until the age of 64 are people now more likely to vote Conservative than Labour, up from 42 in 2019, according to analysis by Focaldata.

The question has become central to the party’s response to ­Labour’s house building program, as the Conservatives seek to speak out on behalf of members who ­oppose new developments without repelling younger people who are struggling to afford their own home.

About one in 10 of those who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 have since died, and analysis by The Times using Office for ­National Statistics population estimates shows the trend is likely to accelerate over this parliament.

By 2029 about 1.2 million people who voted Conservative this month will have died, about 17 per cent of the Tories’ vote, against only about 500,000 Labour voters, about 5.3 per cent of the party’s backers.

Labour can also expect to pick up the support of 800,000 new voters over the next parliament, against only 160,000 for the Tories, given that young people are far more likely to vote Labour. The net effect is the Tories losing a million votes while Labour gains 300,000.

The analysis does not account for people becoming more likely to vote Conservative as they age, but this traditional trend has begun to break down among younger generations. If nothing else changed, this swing would result in Labour gaining 29 seats and the Tories losing 34.

Labour is also expected to give the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds, which could add about a dozen seats for the party.

Sam Bidwell, director of the Next Generation Centre at the Adam Smith Institute, said that Tory reliance on older voters was “an existential challenge” for the party. “If it continues along its current trajectory, the party is at risk of literally dying out,” he said.

“Though there is certainly a ­degree of cultural disillusionment with the party amongst younger people, the primary reason for their dissatisfaction is economic. Our anti-risk, anti-growth economic model has failed to give younger people the opportunities that their parents enjoyed, while homeownership has started to fall.”

Mr Bidwell said the revival of conservative parties in Canada and New Zealand showed that it was “perfectly possible for centre-right parties to reinvigorate their support amongst younger voters”.

The Times