Odessa next target in Putin’s plan to conquer Ukraine

Seizing the Black Sea port of Odessa would give Russia a “chokehold” on Ukraine’s economy, analysts have warned.

A woman and child arrive from Odessa at a train station in Lviv, western Ukraine, on Thursday. Picture: AFP

Seizing the Black Sea port of ­Odessa would give Russia a “chokehold” on Ukraine’s economy, analysts have warned, as the Ukrainian military said Russian warships were heading in the city’s direction.

General Sir Richard Barrons, a former British military chief who is analysing the unfolding events, said that in terms of impact, to lose Odessa would be like Britain losing Dover.

A senior Western intelligence official suggested in January that Russia could attempt to take the port and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. The official said it would be a “huge strategic victory” for Russia and could be “very punishing” to Ukraine.

Russia’s focus in the south so far has centred on the smaller strategic port of Kherson, a city of 300,000 people located on the banks of the Dnieper River near where it flows into the Black Sea. Now Kherson is under Russian control, it could be possible to unblock a crucial canal and restore water supplies to annexed Crimea.

Mariupol, another southern city seen as crucial to linking the Crimean peninsula with pro-Russian separatist areas in the east, is said to be surrounded by Russian forces and under constant bombardment.

However, with the capture of Kherson there are signs the battle could move further west.

The latest update from the Ukrainian armed forces noted the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s landing unit, comprising four large landing ships accompanied by three missile boats, heading “in the ­direction of Odessa”.

Barrons said: “Odessa is the big prize. You would expect to see, based on the success in Kherson, that the Russian forces that are on the coast would now be prone to move further west and it is entirely plausible they would then put an amphibious landing somewhere around Odessa and conduct over a few days a link-up operation.”

Odessa, the third largest city in Ukraine, is a popular tourist resort and is strategically significant. “It is fundamental to the way it exports agricultural goods, iron ore, titanium; Ukraine is very rich in minerals and this stuff generally travels by sea,” Barrons said.

Any of Ukraine’s bulk goods, including grain, go by sea to ­Europe. Barrons added: “Losing the coast is a massive strategic blow to the Ukrainian economy. They would only be able to export by road and rail into the European Union effectively.

“As we know those transport links in no way replicate what you can do with a port. It’s like losing Dover for the British economy.”

Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said Odessa was a “key artery” for Ukraine’s maritime trade, with about 70 per cent of the country’s maritime trade flowing through the city.

“Holding it would give Russia a chokehold on the Ukrainian economy,” he said.

The wider Odessa region is about the size of Belgium or ­Moldova and makes up about 5.5 per cent of Ukraine’s territory.

It is one of the main grain producers in Ukraine and an exporter. Ministers previously have warned of the impact an invasion in Ukraine could have on grain prices across the world, especially in places such as Yemen and Lebanon that are heavily reliant on Ukrainian grain.

Kaushal added that the fall of Kherson was “symbolically important” as it was the first major Ukrainian city to have fallen into Russian hands. However, he added that it did not appear to have been heavily defended so did not necessarily prove much about Russia’s ability to take over cities.

THE TIMES