New year, new problems for Boris Johnson
With the British Conservative Party fractious over Covid curbs and unforced political errors, Boris Johnson must seek to restore his authority in some pressing issues.
Boris Johnson says Britain’s position is “incomparably better than last year” on everything from vaccination to economic growth. For the UK prime minister, the start of 2022 will have to be incomparably better than the end of 2021.
With the Conservative Party fractious over Covid curbs and a series of unforced political errors, Mr Johnson must seek to restore his authority in the coming weeks. But from coronavirus to the cost of living, he faces problems with the potential to blow his relaunch off course. The most pressing issues include:
Coronavirus
Cabinet ministers are still lauding Mr Johnson for his decision not to impose coronavirus restrictions over Christmas and the new year. “He followed the science, the data wasn’t there,” one minister said. “It was a bold decision because it pushed against Chris [Whitty, chief medical officer for England] and others. It looks like the right call.”
That decision will come under scrutiny as the number of coronavirus cases and hospital admissions rise.
As Mr Johnson returns to No 10, a decision on whether to impose restrictions on household mixing and large events in England will be at the top of his in-tray. Head teachers are planning for entire year groups to be sent home to stop staff shortages from spiralling out of control. Workplaces are likely to suffer as more people go into isolation after contracting coronavirus.
Cabinet ministers remain optimistic. “My guess is we’re seeing an endgame of coronavirus where it is becoming less powerful with each mutation,” one said.
But Covid-19 will remain in the headlines. The government has announced that a public inquiry into the pandemic will begin in the first half of this year.
Dominic Cummings, the former chief adviser to Mr Johnson, will come to the fore again. Mr Cummings has said the prime minister’s decision to delay implementing a lockdown last summer cost thousands of lives. He has suggested he was willing to provide evidence to back up his assertions, including WhatsApp messages and emails from Mr Johnson.
Cost of living
One cabinet minister said the economy was the “essential challenge” facing the government, and one that could define Mr Johnson’s term in office. Households face higher bills from rising energy prices, inflation, interest rate increases and tax rises. The Resolution Foundation estimates these could cost families pounds 1,200 next year.
The tax rises, increasing National Insurance and freezing the personal allowance, are causing unease among the Tory faithful.
A government source said: “You add it all together and we’re in a really, really tricky situation. We need to start announcing things soon, at the moment there’s nothing – just government policies [tax rises] making it worse. It’s the opposite of support.”
Ministers are drawing up plans to help shield people from a huge rise in their energy bills in April, when the energy price cap is due to increase.
Small boats
Mr Johnson is all too aware of the damage the Channel migrant crisis risks inflicting on his government at the polls.
Ministers and government officials admit that the number of migrants crossing the Channel is set to rise in 2022 owing to the failure to find viable solutions to the issue. Mr Johnson’s vow to “take back control of our borders” is being eroded by continuous crossings of small boats. One senior government source said: “If it looks bad now, it’s going to look much worse in spring when it’s warmer.”
Priti Patel, the UK home secretary, hopes the Nationality and Borders Bill will be on the statute books by then, giving new powers to the Border Force and immigration agencies. Ministers concede it will not deliver the change needed to reverse the crossings. Government officials say that only a comprehensive deal with the French to return migrants and deploy joint patrols in the Channel and on French beaches would reduce the numbers.
But they have given up on hopes of a settlement before French elections in April after the refusal of President Emmanuel Macron to offer concessions that would harm him domestically.
Brexit
Brexit still occupies minds in No 10, even if it has slipped off the front pages.
Mr Johnson hopes to unpick the Northern Ireland protocol, the agreement with the EU that requires customs checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea.
A breakthrough in talks with the EU appeared to be close when Mr Johnson apparently dropped a demand to remove the European Court of Justice as the ultimate arbiter in trade disputes.
Such a concession could harm Mr Johnson’s reputation with Tory backbenchers, many of whom are already dismayed at the resignation of Lord Frost as Brexit minister and regard the involvement of the ECJ as unacceptable.
Mr Johnson is under pressure to set out exactly how Britain will diverge from EU laws and what taxes can be cut. “What’s the point in gaining new powers if we choose to align with Brussels on everything?,” one senior Tory said.
Tory backbenchers will be eager for the dividends of Brexit to become apparent this year. But, some companies will experience greater bureaucracy, not least when full customs checks come into effect today (Saturday) for businesses exporting to the EU.
Christmas parties
The furore over Christmas parties in No 10 during the lockdown will return to the fore this month.
Sue Gray, a former director of propriety and ethics at the Cabinet Office, will begin interviewing officials and advisers about events that took place in 2020.
Gray was drafted in after Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, recused himself from the investigation after admitting he knew about an event that was held in his own office.
Early indications are that she is not taking her task lightly. A dozen staff were contacted over Christmas and asked to give evidence. They are said to be “pissing themselves”. For Mr Johnson the issue is particularly dangerous given his and No 10’s repeated denials that the events were Christmas parties. The issue has also cut through with the public, with polls suggesting there is considerable anger.
Net zero. Can he keep 1.5c alive?
Mr Johnson has set himself some bold targets for cutting carbon emissions. However, with gas bills set to increase, the prime minister will come under pressure from a caucus of Tory MPs known as the “net zero scrutiny group” to slow the transition away from fossil fuels.
Mr Johnson will launch a boiler upgrade scheme in the spring, offering households £5000 grants to install low-carbon heating systems. But campaigners say more drastic action is needed.
At Cop26 in Glasgow, Johnson’s aim was to limit global warming to 1.5C or “keep 1.5 alive”. Those hopes are fading after China and India watered down the language at the last minute about phasing out coal.
Leadership challenge?
Mr Johnson went into Christmas with his authority at its lowest ebb after revelations over alleged lockdown parties in No 10 and Tory revolts.
Mr Johnson will be looking to reset the febrile relations with his backbenchers. He is considering an overhaul of his team and also a mini-reshuffle in which Mark Spencer, the chief whip, could be demoted. Managing a disparate and dislocated party is no easy task. If Mr Johnson does push ahead with further Covid restrictions he is likely to again face a revolt. Tax rises, which come into effect in April, will only exacerbate tensions.
With Mr Johnson weakened, allies of Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, are making discreet approaches to senior Tory MPs.
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