Liz Truss ‘almost certain’ to win British PM race: leading pollster

A leading pollster says Liz Truss will have to commit a spectacular error to fail to take office, giving Rishi Sunak only a 5 per cent chance of victory.

Liz Truss has a very clear and strong narrative, Sir John Curtice said. Picture: Clodagh Kilcoyne-Pool/Getty Images

Liz Truss will become the next prime minister unless she “fouls up in some spectacular fashion” in the final stages of the Tory leadership contest, a leading pollster has said.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, suggested there was only a 5 per cent chance of victory for Rishi Sunak. He said he would be “extraordinarily surprised” if Truss, the foreign secretary, does not take office.

A YouGov poll with Sky News yesterday (Thursday) morning showed Truss retained a 32-point lead over Sunak, matching a separate poll of Tory members by the Conservative Home website on Wednesday.

Allies of the former chancellor have questioned the accuracy of the polls and said that they did not reflect their experiences on the campaign trail.

Curtice, who gave accurate predictions of the election results in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017, said that YouGov and Conservative Home had a “pretty good record”.

He added: “Unless there is something that’s gone seriously astray this time it is difficult to believe that Sunak is going to make it.”

He said that he would not rule out Truss winning by fewer than 60 percentage points because Sunak could gain more support among undecided voters.

“But below 50 it would count as a much bigger error in the polling than we’ve seen previously in the 2015 general election,” he said. “There’s a 5 per cent chance that Sunak could win it. Something would have to happen. Truss would have to foul up in some spectacular fashion. Even then it might be too late.

“I would be extraordinarily surprised if she doesn’t win. The evidence in front of one’s eyes all points you in the same direction.”

Rishi Sunak speaks at an event in Belfast this week. Picture: Paul Faith / AFP

Curtice said that Sunak may have come across as more polished and articulate, but Truss had been the better politician during the contest. “If you’re trying to answer the question, ‘Which of the two candidates would an Oxford tutor mark the most highly?’ you would say Sunak,” Curtice said. “On the other hand, if you were asking who was the better politician, you would have to say Liz Truss.

“She has a very clear narrative which clearly resonates with her audience, she sticks to her guns, she doesn’t change her mind. She is still as much in favour of tax cuts as she was six weeks ago, she is Johnsonian in her style. The fascinating question is how well it will all survive once she’s got the job.”

The YouGov poll suggested that 66 per cent of members backed Truss and 34 per cent Sunak, excluding those who were undecided.

The race has narrowed only slightly since a poll by The Times and YouGov a fortnight ago, when Truss had a 38-point lead. It suggests Sunak’s blitz of television interviews and increasingly strident approach to the contest, particularly over Truss’s approach to the cost of living, are failing to have an impact.

Fifty-seven per cent of Conservative members say that they have already voted and another 38 per cent intend to. Truss retains a 37-point lead among those who have voted and a 15-point lead over Sunak among those yet to vote, with a significant proportion still undecided.

Both Truss and Sunak pale in terms of popularity compared to Boris Johnson. If he was in the contest alongside Truss and Sunak, 46 per cent would vote for him, 24 per cent for Truss and 23 per cent for Sunak.

The YouGov poll suggests the popularity of Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak pale in comparison to Boris Johnson. Picture: Oli Scarff/WPA Pool/Getty Images

Tory members have clear doubts about the ability of whoever enters No 10 to win the next general election. Four in 10 Tory members believe there will be a hung parliament or a Labour majority if Truss becomes prime minister, but the figures are even worse for Sunak.

Even though Truss has significant support there is apparent concern about her economic policy. She has said that she will cut taxes to “go for growth”, but 63 per cent of members said the priority should be getting inflation under control. Only 33 per cent said tax cuts should come first.

The Times