This week will bring the appointment of the sixth foreign secretary since I stepped down from that office – as many foreign secretaries in eight years as in the previous 24. That tells you something about the instability of recent cabinets, but more fascinating to me has been the experience of trying to give advice to each of my successors, two of whom have now gone on to become prime minister.
My meeting with Boris Johnson, in his early days at the Foreign Office, prefigured exactly how he would later conduct himself as PM. The conversation, while never dull, moved from one issue to another and back again several times without any apparent theme or order. I left feeling much humoured but thinking that neither of us were any the wiser and put it down, very charitably I admit, to being the mind of a genius at work.
The contrast with visiting Liz Truss in my old office could not have been greater. She had a list of issues to discuss and themes she wanted to test out on me. She invited ideas, and in the subsequent weeks acted on some of them, such as reinforcing the work on preventing sexual violence in conflict and paying more attention to trouble in the Balkans. I hope that meeting will prove, similarly, a foretaste of what she will be like in No 10, because she will need every ounce of self-discipline, clarity and openness to ideas. She faces the most complex and challenging situation for an incoming prime minister since Churchill took office in 1940.
Liz Truss has been elected with a smaller base of support from MPs than previous leaders. Nevertheless, she has won fair and square. From those of us who backed Rishi Sunak, and from people who are not Conservatives at all, she is entitled to some support and goodwill, since the future of the country is now, to a degree that is exceptional even among prime ministers, in her hands. The Conservative Party cannot change its leader again before a general election due in two years’ time, unless it is to be the laughing stock of the country and the world. Liz Truss is thus the PM who will either take us through the gathering storm of domestic and global crises or we are lost. She is the captain under which the good ship Britain will find a safe harbour or sink. Like it or not, we all need her to succeed.
The danger this new captain faces is not that she will be ousted by her MPs, but that any loss of authority will make her difficult job impossible. If her first week brings any sense of economic events spiralling out of control – a major risk in the current state of stock markets, foreign exchanges, business confidence and inflation forecasts – or of the No 10 operation being no more cohesive than the last one, then MPs will rebel more frequently, foreign leaders will make agreements less easily and millions of voters will look to other parties more eagerly.
Most prime ministers have had the time to feel their way into the job, but in this case the crises are upon us. The first impressions and opening decisions will be likely to decide the fate of the Truss premiership.
Here, then, are three decisions for the coming days to get right, and where mistakes will be hard to correct.
The first is the underrated task of just running the government in a way that is effective inside and respected outside. Her stated intention of having a smaller, tighter staff in No 10 is commendable. For government to function well it also needs a core team of senior ministers who meet daily, share big decisions, speak frankly and challenge each other’s ideas. By not including the strongest defeated rivals in the biggest offices of state, Liz Truss is taking a calculated risk. But the upside is that she ought to be able to run a genuine team at the top of government.
In addition, a fundamental attribute of good government is high standards of conduct, truthfulness and fair dealing. This is where the country has been let down, and the opening impression created by visibly putting that right would be a strong one. There must be no favouritism or obfuscation when individuals run into trouble. What happens to the inquiry into Johnson’s own conduct should be left to the House of Commons. Ethics advisers should be taken seriously. Truss is a naturally organised, disciplined and plain-speaking person. She should make the most of that so people can be proud of how their government is conducted.
The second vital and immediate decision should be to frame discussions with European leaders in a way that allows for relations to improve. This is not to suggest any weakness. The impasse over the Northern Ireland protocol is urgent and cannot be resolved without some compromise from the EU. But leaders in Dublin, Paris and Berlin will respond best to a PM whose word can be relied upon and holds out the possibility of improved co-operation on energy and foreign affairs.
The chemistry of the opening days will be crucial. And voters who wanted to Get Brexit Done in 2019 will not be amused if they find it is still making trade, travel and migration control harder in 2024.
The greatest test of all will be the imminent announcements on inflation and the economy. Planned tax reductions and drastic action on energy prices mean much more borrowing, in a strategy reliant on faster growth. But growth will need more than tax cuts and general commitments to deregulation. It needs an environment for innovation, with faster decisions in government to grant the visas, fund the research, and create the task forces that would allow Britain to compete with countries getting ahead in everything from semiconductors to car batteries.
This is the moment to put science, engineering and technology at the centre of the future economy, championed by a powerful minister and pursued vigorously from Downing Street. Without such measures, the world will conclude we are heading for stagflation rather than growth, and that would mean a devalued currency and a massive, missed opportunity.
There is a long list of other huge issues: health, climate, Ukraine, strikes, the Union. Yet it is by starting off with a realistic hope of effective government, workable foreign relations and a clear strategy for enduring growth that she can win the support and maintain the authority to deal with everything else.
Truss is a very different person from Johnson, as my visits to them in the Foreign Office made clear. In the coming days, she should show just how different she is going to be.
The Times
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