Labour takes biggest poll lead in 10 years as cost of living bites

A YouGov poll shows the party with the backing of 43 per cent of voters, 15 points ahead of the Conservatives on 28 per cent.

Labour leader Keir Starmer meets Dave Church and 10 month old Ellen, in Exeter last week to talk about the cost of living crisis. Picture: Getty Images

British Labour hold their biggest poll lead over the Conservatives for almost 10 years amid mass dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the cost of living.

A YouGov poll for The Times showed Labour with the backing of 43 per cent of voters, 15 points ahead of the Conservatives on 28 per cent. It is the biggest Labour lead recorded by the pollster since February 2013.

Labour’s score of 43 per cent is four points up on last week and the party’s highest vote share in a YouGov poll since March 2018. At the 2019 general election the party won 32.1 per cent of the vote under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader Keir Starmer’s predecessor.

The Conservatives have fallen two points in a week to 28 per cent, their lowest figure since a poll in January at the height of the No 10 parties scandal.

At the last election the Conservatives won 43.6 per cent of the vote. One in 10 f those who voted for the party under Boris Johnson in 2019 now say they would vote for Labour in a general election. The poll will add to fears among Conservative MPs that the party faces disaster regardless of whether Foreign Secretary Liz Truss or former Chancellor of the exechequer Rishi Sunak succeeds Mr Johnson in just over two weeks.

There are signs that the public believes Labour can win an election after 12 years out of office. Asked to predict the outcome of a general election with Ms Truss as the party leader, 34 per cent predicted a Conservative government with a large majority, a small majority or in a hung parliament. But 37 per cent predicted a Labour government, including 24 per cent who forecast a Labour majority.

Asked what would happen if Mr Sunak wins, 35 per cent predicted a Conservative government after the next election and 36 per cent predicted a Labour government.

The poll also shows solid support for Sir Keir’s policies to address the cost of living crisis. The Labour leader announced this week that he wanted to freeze the energy price cap at current levels, funded in part by an expanded windfall tax on energy giants, rather than letting bills rise further.

Asked which of Sir Keir, Mr Sunak and Ms Truss had the best plan for dealing with rising energy bills, 25 per cent chose the Labour leader, 11 per cent the former chancellor and 8 per cent the foreign secretary. However, the biggest score was 35 per cent for none of the above with 21 per cent saying they did not know.

Adam McDonnell, YouGov’s research director, said: “These latest results should be very worrying for the Conservative Party and indicate that the next prime minister will have work to do in restoring public trust on handling the cost of living crisis. The last time Labour held such a commanding lead in the polls was in 2013 when the Conservatives were still suffering from the fallout of the omnishambles budget.

“While the leadership hopefuls have been fighting each other in a prolonged campaign, Labour’s plan for tackling rising energy bills has been received well and they are now tied with the Tories on who would be best to handle the economy - an issue they had previously lagged way behind on for almost a decade. Of course, things can change very quickly, particularly when there is a change of leader, but whoever does get the top job is unlikely to have much of a honeymoon period.”

Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Ms Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

The poll will strengthen Sir Keir’s hand as he faces pressure within the party to come out more unequivocally in support of striking workers. John McDonnell, shadow chancellor under Mr Corbyn, called yesterday (Friday) on the Labour leader to support industrial action “when necessary”. He told the BBC: “I am hoping that Keir Starmer will realise actually the public mood is that people need support now to get them through this crisis and Labour should be at the forefront of that support.”

The Times