Labour could beat Blair’s landslide in election, poll shows

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the Conservatives would be the second party in a hung parliament.

Keir Starmer campaigns in Kirkcaldy, Scotland. Picture: Getty Images

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s best-case outcome from the next general election is a hung parliament while Labour leader Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than former Labour prime minister Tony Blair, according to the first significant constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the Conservatives would be the second party in a hung parliament, the MRP poll of 10,140 people by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The election is due at the end of next year.

The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, well ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority in the House of Commons. In his 1997 landslide, Sir Tony won 418 seats and a majority of 179.

However, the Best for Britain study cautioned that in other scenarios Labour’s results would be much less positive.

If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’ 202.

In a scenario where greater weighting was given to the levels of education of voters who are undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’ 232, giving Sir Keir a majority of 90. If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Sir Keir would win 316 seats and Mr Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.

The polling was conducted between April 20 and May 9. While showing a large Labour lead, the party has lost seven points and the Conservatives have gained five since an equivalent poll conducted in the northern autumn.

Naomi Smith, Best for Britain’s chief executive, said: “Labour’s lead does look healthy but their margins are falling everywhere.” Voters should not “assume that there’s going to be this landslide”, she said. “What we’re seeing in our data is that it is up for grabs. Lots of factors could come together to mean that there isn’t necessarily going to be a change of government.”

Luke Tryl, UK director of the More in Common think tank, said: “You’re in a situation where people at the moment are going to Labour by default, not because they love the Labour Party. If things start to get a bit better, and people aren’t convinced by that offer from Labour, things become more challenging.”

Mr Tryl said that in focus groups voters used the word “broken” to describe Britain and said they were “exhausted”. “The party that will win the next election is the one that can convince people, or best convince people, that it’s OK to turn on the six o’clock news and not be worried.”

Psephologist John Curtice said the “substantial” decline in Conservative support was because of “partygate and the Liz Truss fiscal event”. He said there had only been “a bit of narrowing” in Labour’s lead since Mr Sunak became Prime Minister in October. Sir John questioned whether Mr Sunak’s focus, including this week, on the small boats issue would help the Tories to improve their position.

THE TIMES